Kentucky Derby prep: Sham Stakes odds and analysis
Editor's note: This report was prepared before Speed Boat Beach was scratched from the Sham.
Sunday’s Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes brings the 2023 Kentucky Derby trail to Santa Anita for the second time when a field of six 3-year-olds will race a mile.
Even though the race carries 10-4-3-2-1 qualifying points toward Kentucky Derby 2023, they are only for horses whose trainers are eligible for the May 6 race. Since Bob Baffert is not, any points his finishers earn will be vacated. So if all six finish the race, a maximum of two horses can get Derby points.
Baffert nominated nine horses for this year’s Sham and four of them were entered. It is a race that Baffert won eight times since 2001 including the last three years with Newgrange, Life Is Good and Authentic. Authentic went on to win the 2020 Kentucky Derby.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Sham with the morning line odds provided by the Horse Racing Nation staff. This Grade 3 is scheduled as race 8 out of 9 with post time set for 6:30 p.m. EST.
1. Newgate (6-1 – Into Mischief – Bob Baffert / Frankie Dettori – 4: 1-1-0 - $101,975) Newgate broke his maiden in the way of the good Baffert runners when he won his first start by a large margin as the odds-on favorite. From that Del Mar win, he ran in three graded stakes with a second in the recent Bob Hope (G3) when the blinkers came off. Frankie Dettori gets the mount since John Velazquez opted to ride the morning line favorite. Use underneath, blinkers off.
2. National Treasure (9-5 – Quality Road – Bob Baffert / John Velazquez – 3: 1-1-1 - $288,000) National Treasure won his debut at Del Mar by 3 ½ lengths as the .50-1 favorite in September. In the American Pharoah (G1) he was second behind Cave Rock, currently the top-rated 3-year-old in the Baffert barn. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), National Treasure was third behind the best of the east and west coasts. Velazquez stays on board as Baffert’s first choice rider. Top choice.
3. Speed Boat Beach (3-1 – Bayern – Bob Baffert / Flavien Prat – 4: 3-0-0 - $178,000) Although Speed Boat Beach broke his maiden on the main track at Del Mar in September, he was moved to the turf in an unusual move by Baffert. The son of Bayern responded with a win in the Speakeasy at Santa Anita before a ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1). Last month he was back in the winner’s circle in the Cecil B. DeMille (G3) at Del Mar going the mile distance. Now Speed Boat Beach is back on the dirt. Turf to dirt.
4. Reincarnate (8-1 – Good Magic – Bob Baffert / Juan Hernandez – 4: 1-3-0 - $82,400) Reincarnate began his career with two starts on the turf which produced a pair of second-place finishes. Baffert moved him back to the main track at Santa Anita and the son of Good Magic was again second. He broke his maiden in his fourth start with a front-end effort going a mile at Del Mar. Toss.
5. Packs A Wahlop (6-1 – Creative Cause – Jeff Mullins / Ramon Vasquez – 5: 3-0-0 - $240,000) Packs A Wahlop will move from turf to dirt after winning three times on the grass. He broke his maiden at Del Mar sprinting, won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3) going a mile and then added the Zuma Beach (G3) at Santa Anita. Last seen Packs A Wahlop was eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). His only dirt race was in his racing debut in June on a sloppy Gulfstream Park main track when he was fourth as the favorite. Turf to dirt, blinkers on.
6. Spun Intended (3-1 – Hard Spun – Mark Glatt / Mike Smith – 2: 1-1-0 - $54,200) Spun Intended broke his maiden at Del Mar in November when he beat a field of nine by more than six lengths in his second start as an odds-on favorite with a front-running effort. He sold twice at auction, first for $100,000 as a yearling and then for $125,000 as a 2-year-old. Spun Intended had a very fast six-furlong workout in preparation for a start going two turns in this graded stakes race. Win contender.
Summary: With 4 out of 6 horses in the field from the barn of Bob Baffert, it is probable that the hall of famer will win the Sham for the ninth time. However, under similar circumstances three weeks ago Practical Move beat three Baffert runners to win the Los Alamitos Futurity last month.
Amongst the Baffert quartet is National Treasure who is probably his second best 3-year-old topped by only the Grade 1 winner Cave Rock. Twice National Treasure finished behind that stablemate in the American Pharoah and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Top three finishes in those two races gives him a significant advantage over the field in the Sham and that makes National Treasure the top choice on Sunday.