Sham Stakes 2022: Odds and analysis

Another short field composes the Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday, a points-paying Kentucky Derby prep. From a betting standpoint, this is an interesting group of five horses as it involves a vulnerable favorite who exits a moderate win at Aqueduct.

The Sham Stakes is carded as Race 7 with a post time of 4 p.m. PST. Odds are from Horse Racing Nation.

1. Mackinnon, 7-2 (American Pharoah – Doug O’Neill/Juan Hernandez – 6: 3-1-1 - $327,860): In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Mackinnon gave a nice closing bid for third to finish only 1 3/4 lengths behind Modern Games. Before the Breeders’ Cup, he also won the Zuma Beach Stakes in October at Santa Anita despite clipping heels on the backside, and the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes in September. Those three races establish him as a nice turf horse, but can he transfer the form to dirt

He ran only fourth in his career debut on dirt last May. The non-threatening effort is forgivable because he made his first start in that race and the 4 1/2-furlong distance was too short. His recent workouts look great, as he passes his workmate over the dirt training track on Dec. 6 and Dec. 19 with ease. Those two workouts are shown on XBTV.

To give one more reason to choose him, trainer Bob Baffert’s two entries do not look like monsters at first glance, which makes this a good time to take a chance on this turf-to-dirt entry. As a last point, Mackinnon offers value. The pick.

2. Oviatt Class, 4-1 (Bernardini – Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux – 5: 1-0-2 - $137,620): This is a pivotal time for Oviatt Class. Is he going to become a contender for the win spot in these winter and spring Derby trail races, or is he going to pick up minor check after minor check as a late closer? Despite his closing style giving him a disadvantage in dirt races, he did make a nice closing move for third in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), and then he ran fifth in the crowded Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after being hampered by minor traffic problems.

The smaller field might help him run more freely when the time is right. But his pedigree as a son of Bernardini out of a Tiznow mare suggests a slower development time. He might need more seasoning to become a top horse among his peers. For this race, it feels like another minor paycheck is in the works. Use underneath.

3. Newgrange, 3-1 (Violence – Bob Baffert/John Velazquez – 1: 1-0-0 - $42,000): This Violence colt broke his maiden at first asking on Nov. 28 at Del Mar in a six-furlong sprint. The 1 1/2-length margin does not seem impressive at first glance, although he won under a hand ride with a solid 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. If routing is his true preference, then it is more understandable if his career debut at a sprint distance appears only decent for a first-time starter.

For what it's worth, Newgrange’s dam Bella Chianti is a full sister to Zimmer, who broke his maiden in a one-mile dirt route at Churchill Downs in 2010 before winning his next start in a two-turn turf route. Baffert knows whether his horses belong on the trail. Also, he tends not to crank up his first-time starters, which might explain the small margin win. His stablemate Rockefeller is not the most exciting Baffert runner out there. As another good sign, Newgrange also picks up the services of jockey John Velazquez. Perhaps Mackinnon is preferable, but Newgrange fits right alongside him in wagers. Win contender.

4. Rockefeller, 7-5 (Medaglia d’Oro – Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat – 3: 2-0-0 - $142,500): Two starts ago in the American Pharoah, Rockefeller’s stablemate Corniche put him away pretty easily at the top of the stretch. One race later, Corniche won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Rockefeller went on to win the Nashua Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct against suspect competition without switching leads until the wire. The Nashua third-place finisher Judge Davis ran a disappointing eighth in the Remsen Stakes (G2) in his next start, while the fourth-place Midnight Worker ended up only third in an Aqueduct optional claiming race.

Rockefeller returns home in this spot and avoids Corniche. He also might control the early pace in this five-horse field. But all four of these other entries are within range of him ability-wise, and Rockefeller’s three races to this point do not justify the probable low price. Toss.

5. Degree of Risk, 8-1 (Cairo Prince – Eoin Harty/Umberto Rispoli – 6: 1-2-2 - $102,712): As with Mackinnon, the lack of successful dirt experience is a question. In fact, Degree of Risk has never tried dirt in six career starts. His maiden win came over synthetic at Arlington Park last July. He then went on to finish second in the Soaring Free Stakes on turf at Woodbine, before a third-place finish over the same course in the Summer Stakes (G1) and a third in the Qatar Golden Mile Stakes over the Del Mar turf course in November.

One month later, he closed out 2020 with a runner-up finish in the Gold Rush Stakes over synthetic at Golden Gate Fields. The pedigree says dirt is not a problem. Note how Degree of Risk’s dam Wipe Out is a half-sister to Emcee, the 2012 Forego Stakes (G1) winner. Wipe Out is also a half-sister to Baffled, the dam of 2014 Florida Derby (G1) and 2015 Donn Handicap (G1) winner Constitution. Constitution started fast as a sire and creates mostly dirt runners. Remember the 10-1 upset from Out of Bounds in 2012? A similar result might happen in this edition for Harty, especially with no monsters lined up on paper. Live long shot.

Conclusion:

Fair win odds on Mackinnon might be 3-1 or higher.

If Degree of Risk’s odds are 10-1 or higher, it could be tempting to place a win and place wager on him and hope some of the lower prices throw in clunkers. With his pedigree, Degree of Risk should enjoy dirt racing.

Otherwise, use Mackinnon, Newgrange and Degree of Risk in multi-race wagers and move on.

Bet

Win: 1 (at 3-1 or higher)

Win/place: 5 (at 10-1 or higher)

Use 1,3,5 in multi-race wagers.