Sham Stakes 2020: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

Even though Santa Anita Park's Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes only drew six horses set to go one mile, this is a decent betting race at first glance. On paper, both of Bob Baffert's entries may be vulnerable, leaving open the chance for a mild upset as the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail resumes Saturday.

The Sham Stakes is carded as Race 5 with a post time set for approximately 4:30 p.m. ET.

1. Authentic, 7/5 (Into Mischief – Bob Baffert/Drayden Van Dyke – 1: 1-0-0): While the first Baffert runner did break his maiden in a decent manner at Del Mar, he only traveled 5 ½ furlongs and now stretches out to a two-turn mile. Not every son of Into Mischief will falter when stretching out. But this one's bottom side is neutral at best for longer distances and does not help out the top side significantly. Considering the lack of evidence he can route, it is hard to accept him at a low price on top. Use underneath.

2. Zimba Warrior, 12-1 (Khozan – Keith Desormeaux/Jose Valdivia Jr. – 5: 1-0-3): This one is outclassed on paper. His lone win came at Fresno, which is part of the lower-class California fair circuit that runs in the time when Golden Gate goes on hiatus. His three tries at Del Mar and one attempt at Santa Anita all resulted in losses. He did finish third in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) but was 5 ¾ lengths back of High Velocity, who was defeated in his subsequent start. Toss.

3. Uncaptured Hero, 10-1 (Uncaptured – Richard Baltas/Flavien Prat – 2: 1-0-0): Dropping down to a maiden claimer is never a great sign, although he did graduate while running with a lofty $100,000 tag at Del Mar. Previously though, he lost his career debut at the lower class Los Alamitos. Against this kind of field, it doesn’t look like he fits. Toss.

4. Azul Coast, 3-1 (Super Saver – Bob Baffert/Joel Rosario – 1: 1-0-0): This other Baffert entry is a proven router with a two-turn mile win at Los Alamitos. He won by four lengths with a 90 Brisnet Speed Rating, only one point less than Authentic's maiden win. On the negative side, the runner-up Special Day is not that talented. But out of the two Baffert horses, this one is preferable given he’s already gone long. Win contender.

5. Scoring, 6-1 (Justin Phillip – Doug O'Neill/Abel Cedillo – 1: 1-0-0): Without a start since his maiden win in June, he is a wildcard. For what it is worth, the dam High Heeled Hope won four times, but all of those wins came in sprints. She did win up to seven furlongs, and she ran second to Sharp Cat in the 1997 Las Virgenes Stakes (G1) at two turns. Scoring's active full sister, Lady T N T, has won three times, all at sprint distances as well. But it is hard to get a good feel for this horse until he runs. Use underneath.

6. Taishan, 7/2 (Twirling Candy – Richard Baltas/Aaron Gryder – 2: 1-0-0): This colt gets the top slot in the analysis. For one, Taishan is a proven router. Plus, he broke his maiden at Santa Anita, unlike Azul Coast who won at Los Alamitos, where the top competition doesn’t always show. Throw out Taishan's fifth-place finish in his career debut, as it came at six furlongs, and a horse's first start generally works as a learning experience. With the public likely to side with the two Baffert entries, this Baltas colt offers value. The pick.

Conclusion: Taishan is the preferred choice. But for horizontal tickets, Taishan and Azul Coast both work fine as “A” horses, while Authentic and Scoring are “Bs,” if there is room for the latter two.

Vertically, Taishan over Azul Coast or Scoring might pay a decent amount.

This is not the strongest Derby prep. But if the public goes crazy for Authentic, then it becomes playable because trusting a favorite in a route without route experience is not a good idea. If Authentic wins at even money, then I wouldn't feel too bad losing to an underlaid horse.