See why 2-turn experience is so important in BC Juvenile
You can call him Jack, for short. There is no question he became all the rage with his domination of the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, especially after he earned a three-digit Beyer.
In the heady celebration coming out Belmont Park, there was a quiet question about whether Jack could get two turns in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. It was quickly dismissed by his jockey, who said, “I don’t think he’ll have any problems.”
Jack Christopher, right? Guess again.
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That quote was from Joel Rosario last October about Jackie’s Warrior. The benefit of hindsight reminds handicappers that the 9-10 favorite in the Juvenile faded late to finish fourth. Two turns were one too many.
Not so for Essential Quality, who won the Juvenile, was voted the 2-year-old champion of 2020 and burnished his reputation with Grade 1 victories in the Belmont Stakes and Travers. He had prepped for the 2020 Juvenile at Keeneland by racing over the same two-turn course and 1 1/16-mile distance to win the Breeders’ Futurity (G1).
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So here comes another Jack. Jack Christopher’s victory this month in the Champagne earned him a Beyer Speed Figure of 102, according to Daily Racing Form. Like Jackie’s Warrior, he goes to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile without two-turn experience. Nevertheless, like last year, connections sound confident about the challenge Friday at Del Mar.
“The way he was able to relax and rate, and with his running style, why not?” said Daniel Stupp, assistant to trainer Chad Brown. “He didn’t do anything that would stop us from trying.”
History, however, is the rain on the parade of one-turn candidates trying to get that second turn for the first time in the nation’s biggest race for 2-year-olds. Of the first 37 runnings of the Juvenile, 30 were run around two turns. Of the last 23 of those, only six were won by horses whose racing experience was exclusively around one turn.
| Year | Track | BC Juvenile winner | 2-turn prep? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | KEE | Essential Quality | Yes |
| 2019 | SA | Storm the Court | Yes |
| 2018 | CD | Game Winner | Yes |
| 2017 | DMR | Good Magic | No |
| 2016 | SA | Classic Empire | Yes |
| 2015 | KEE | Nyquist | Yes |
| 2014 | SA | Texas Red | Yes |
| 2013 | SA | New Year's Day | Yes |
| 2012 | SA | Shanghai Bobby | No |
| 2011 | CD | Hansen | Yes |
| 2010 | CD | Uncle Mo | No |
| 2009 | OSA | Vale of York | No |
| 2008 | OSA | Midshipman | Yes |
| 2007 | MTH | War Pass | No |
| 2006 | CD | Street Sense | Yes |
| 2005 | BEL* | Stevie Wonderboy | |
| 2004 | LS | Wilko | No |
| 2003 | SA | Action This Day | Yes |
| 2002 | AP | Vindication | Yes |
| 2001 | BEL* | Johannesburg | |
| 2000 | CD | Macho Uno | Yes |
| 1999 | GP | Anees | Yes |
| 1998 | CD | Answer Lively | Yes |
| 1997 | HOL | Favorite Trick | Yes |
| 1996 | WO | Boston Harbor | Yes |
| 1995 | BEL* | Unbridled's Song | |
| 1994 | CD | Timber Country | No |
| 1993 | SA | Brocco | No |
| 1992 | GP | Gilded Time | No |
| 1991 | CD | Arazi | No |
| 1990 | BEL* | Fly So Free | |
| 1989 | GP | Rhythm | No |
| 1988 | CD | Is It True | No |
| 1987 | HOL* | Success Express | |
| 1986 | SA | Capote | Yes |
| 1985 | AQU* | Tasso | |
| 1984 | HOL* | Chief's Crown | |
| *Juvenile went one turn. |
Since 2013, only one 2-year-old has won the Juvenile in his two-turn debut. That was Good Magic in 2017. As with Jack Christopher next week, that was at Del Mar with Brown doing the training and José Ortiz doing the riding.
“He didn’t give me everything he had,” Ortiz said right after Jack Christopher won the Champagne by 2 3/4 lengths. “I think the first time going a mile, this will help him for that next step.”
“What I like about him is that he switches off nicely,” Brown said. “He’s not a horse that pulls. If you drop your hands, he’ll switch off and rate. Will he do that around two turns? I don’t know, but we’ll be sure to have him prepared in the morning to take a little dirt and sit.”
Bettors who believe a second turn will be Jack Christopher’s undoing the way it was for Jackie’s Warrior are most likely to turn to Corniche. Trained by Bob Baffert, the Quality Road colt won the Oct. 1 running of the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), a 1 1/16-mile test around two turns at Santa Anita. Seven horses have used that race, previously known as the Norfolk and the FrontRunner, as a prep to winning the Juvenile.
“You never know until you send them two turns whether they’ll be able to handle it or not,” Baffert said after Corniche’s latest victory. “It looked like he handled it pretty well. He’s got a great mind, so I’m pretty happy about that.”
If numbers are a prism into the future, Essential Quality brought more to his two-turn prep for the Juvenile. His 95 Beyer from the Breeders’ Futurity literally put him in fast company. Corniche got only an 85 for the American Pharoah. His stablemate Barossa, who was a maiden winner Oct. 15 at Santa Anita, earned an 87 for that two-turn, one-mile prep for the Juvenile.
Among the horses likely to line up for the Juvenile, the only other Beyer of at least 80 for two-turn graduates was Pappacap’s 80 as the runner-up in the American Pharoah.
Not that all handicappers will fade horses with only one-turn experience. Nor will confident horsemen be discouraged.
But as Essential Quality’s trainer Brad Cox said last week, “I think it’s worth having some experience around two turns.”