See the angle that could make a comeback for the Belmont

Once considered a bellwether for gauging a horse’s ability to cover the 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont Stakes, the dosage index has been mothballed by modern horseplayers who consider it to be as dowdy as, well, mothballs.

Yet one analyst says the more than century-old formula is still a useful prism to evaluate 3-year-old talent – as long as it is properly used.

“People take that dosage index as a gauge about a horse going a distance of ground,” said Bruno De Julio, a workout authority who operates RacingWithBruno.com. “That’s not what it is. It’s telling you about the balance of the pedigree.”

The raw numbers say that of the last 16 winners of the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes, only American Pharoah had a dosage index higher than 3.00. They also seem to indicate that Rebel’s Romance (1.10), Known Agenda (1.44) and Rombauer (1.86) might be best bred to win June 5 on Long Island.

De Julio said players who use the dosage index in this context are taking a shortcut to an out-of-context conclusion.

“They try to refine those points into coming up with something they just point to,” he said. “I learned that whenever you have something good, you don’t take it to the next level and try to make it even better.”

In other words, there is more to the dosage index than just those decimal-pointed numbers.

Created by the fin de siècle French researcher J.J. Vuillier, the dosage index uses a horse’s pedigree to determine its born-in strengths and weaknesses. By counting star antecedents known as chefs de race, each horse is foaled with a series of five numbers that measure traits such as speed, precocity and stamina, based on pedigree. The corresponding categories are labeled brilliant, intermediate, classic, solid and professional. In simple terms, “brilliant” means pure speed and graduates to a “professional” reading that connotes staying power.

In one of his recent webinars, De Julio used Barbaro as an example. The 2006 Kentucky Derby winner’s dosage index of 2.41 was a mathematical quotient of his full reading of 14-8-21-2-1.

“To me there was a balance to the brilliant speed in his pedigree and his intermediate speed,” De Julio said. “I have come to learn and use the middle (classical) number as maturation process.”

In other words, the lower that middle number, the more likely a horse is to be precocious. The higher the number, the more apt he is to get better as he grows older.

“What the middle number of 21 for Barbaro said was he was not going to be at his best at 2,” De Julio said. “He was going to be good at 3. But the older he got the better he would be.”

A serious injury early in the Preakness kept anyone from knowing whether Barbaro would live up to that billing, but it did not take away from the promise shown in his bloodlines. And, De Julio said, in the rest of his dosage numbers.

“The ‘2’ is the solid category,” he said. “That means he had two horses in his pedigree that were either champions or very, very solid racehorses. The ‘1’ at the end is the ability to go longer than a mile-and-a-quarter, up to a mile-and-a-half.”

In Barbaro’s case, the 2.41 dosage index was not as misleading to De Julio as, say, the 2.20 for Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Rock Your World. That figure comes from a full reading of 3-4-8-1-0.

“That’s an ‘8’ in the middle,” De Julio said. “That means he’s going to be good as a 3-year-old. But he’s already as good as he’s ever going to be. He won’t get any better.”

Already the international betting favorite in the Belmont, Essential Quality has a dosage index right at 3.00, which appears to be the cut line for success in the race. Coming off a fourth-place finish in the Derby, his numbers 5-12-14-1-0 tell De Julio that the 1 1/2 miles should be a good fit.

“The ‘12’ in the intermediate speed and a ‘14’ mean he hasn’t matured yet,” De Julio said. “Brad Cox was absolutely right when he said he’s a Belmont horse with a ‘1’ in the solid.”

Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Hot Rod Charlie, who was third in the Derby, also has a dosage index of 3.00. De Julio said that illustrates his point that the shorthand quotient is often misleading.

“Hot Rod Charlie? No,” he said. “1-4-5-0-0. He’s as good as he’s going to be. He’s not going to get any better.

Florida Derby winner Known Agenda’s 1.44, however, does offer a good indication that he could fit the Belmont distance. That comes from his numbers 4-5-8-4-1.

“The one thing that Known Agenda has going for him is that ‘4’ in the solid category,” De Julio said. “He’s got a lot in his pedigree.”

With UAE Derby winner Rebel’s Romance’s 1.10, based on European breeding, and Preakness winner Rombauer’s 1.86, De Julio sees the biggest asterisks that flaw the dosage index. Namely the incomplete records in North America for foreign horses. 

“The interesting part of Rombauer is on the Twirling Candy (sire) side, there’s Candy Ride,” he said. “Candy Ride was an Argentine-bred. This is an incomplete pedigree.”

In fact, De Julio said that American Pharoah, the only over-3.00 winner of the Belmont since 2003, had the same sort of gaps in his record.

“American Pharoah (4.33) was a 2-3-3-0-0,” he said. “However, on the Pioneerof the Nile (sire) side, there’s Lord at War, an Argentine horse there. It couldn’t be plotted with pedigree points. Anybody that mentioned that American Pharoah doesn’t fit the dosage index is absolutely unaware that it was incomplete.”

The lesson then is to tread carefully when tackling the dosage index, which is readily available at websites such as PedigreeQuery.com. For the Belmont Stakes candidates, it is available here:

1.10 Rebel’s Romance (2-8-3-8-1)

1.44 Known Agenda (4-5-8-4-1)

1.86 Rombauer (2-1-7-0-0)

2.00 Keepmeinmind (0-2-4-0-0)

2.20 Rock Your World (3-4-8-1-0)

3.00 Bourbonic (2-6-8-0-0)

3.00 Essential Quality (5-12-14-1-0)

3.00 Hot Rod Charlie (1-4-5-0-0)

3.00 Get Her Number (3-2-5-0-0)

3.00 Brooklyn Strong (3-4-4-1-0)

3.29 Overtook (7-9-14-0-0)

3.57 Promise Keeper (2-7-7-0-0)

7.00 France Go de Ina (3-15-6-0-0)

The dosage index is computed by adding the first two numbers and half the third, and then dividing that by the sum of half the third number and all of the fourth and fifth. For example: 5-12-14-1-0 means (5+12+7) divided by (7+1+0). Or 24 divided by 8 equals 3.00.

Note: Ron Flatter is a paid producer and participant on Bruno De Julio’s podcasts.