See how a former NHC winner is playing the Derby futures
As a political consultant in Louisiana, he has helped candidates win elections. As a horseplayer, he has helped himself to winning bets on races at the highest level.
Even though he is best remembered for finishing first in the 2012 National Horseplayers Championship, Michael Beychok is still trying to find the key to winning a big futures bet on the Kentucky Derby.
“It’s one of the biggest crap shoots, but it’s also one of the most alluring,” he said.
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Coming up on 16 years since he cashed on Giacomo at 35-1 when he could have waited until post time and gotten 50-1, Beychok is tackling another batch of Derby chances, 174 of which are on offer in Nevada at Circa Sports and William Hill.
“I don’t care about what Beyer figure or what Thoro-Graph or what Brisnet number they ran,” he said this week. “I want to see how he looks. Was he able to relax? Did he have some trouble or dirt in his face? Did he just move like a horse that is extending his stride as he runs longer?”
Beychok already rejects Circa’s 9-1 favorite, Life Is Good — “There’s no way you can be that fast that early at a sprint and be around for a mile-and-a-quarter in May” — and he believes William Hill’s 8-1 favorite, Essential Quality, is too short a price even at 13-1 at Circa. “He has done zero wrong, but there’s no way I can bet a horse to win the Derby in December at those odds.”
So who might he bet? With a little less than five months until the 147th running of America’s biggest race, Beychok saw a few possibilities that are longer than his 50-1 to 75-1 minimum.
Red Flag (35-1 Circa, 35-1 William Hill)
Wait a second. How did the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) winner slip in at these odds?
“He was just phenomenal,” Beychok said. “Visually impressive. Push button. He just rolled when he wanted to roll.”
Still, 35-1? Beychok is hoping the trainer that attracted his bet on Giacomo in 2005 will ease this Tamarkuz colt into his 2021 season. In other words, lose next time out.
“I don’t think there’s any way that John Shirreffs is going to have this horse cranked for his first start as a 3-year-old,” he said. “Hopefully he will run third or fourth, and then (his odds) might creep up. If he wins we’re screwed.”
Beychok’s bottom line on Red Flag: “Just wait.”
Sittin On Go (70-1 Circa, 150-1 William Hill)
A ninth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a sixth-place result in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) have not repelled Beychok from considering this Brody’s Cause colt in Dale Romans’s barn.
“I really liked Sittin On Go when he won the Iroquois (G3),” he said. “It just visually looked like a Kentucky Derby-winning move over the same track. He’s run two clunkers since, but the Iroquois was so big that it just makes sense to me that he wasn’t able to grab that form again. At 150-1 I can be wrong a few times.”
Savile Row (65-1 Circa, 85-1 William Hill)
“He fits the ‘other Baffert’ angle,” Beychok said of the Quality Road colt that broke his maiden against four rivals in a sprint at Del Mar last month. “He had a little bit more of a rating, idling skill than Life Is Good, who is just kind of a ‘blast-off’er.”
Beychok said he was not dissuaded by Savile Row not having a timed work since that race. On the contrary, he said, “these horses don’t need six months of training. (Baffert) puts a lot of work into a horse before they run so they have a really good foundation. He really puts hard works into them because he’s trying to weed out the ones that he doesn’t want.”
Lord of War (Updated: 250-1 Circa)
A fourth-place finish in a turf-sprint debut Sunday at Gulfstream Park is not the sort of performance that puts a horse on the Derby radar. And that is just the way Beychok likes it.
“You must go back and watch that race,” he said, “because it’s quite a performance by Julian Leparoux. He broke last, and then you just never saw him until mid-stretch. His stride was extending, and he was just like a wild horse closing.”
Beychok is counting on trainer Patrick Biancone doing with this Sky Mesa colt what he did with Sole Volante. That was to start him on the turf and then move him to the dirt and onto the Triple Crown trail.
“You better get 200-1 when he shows up on the sheets in Las Vegas,” he said.
UPDATE: After seeing this story, Circa Sports opened Lord of War on Wednesday morning at 250-1.
Mandaloun (55-1 Circa, 50-1 William Hill)
Now 2-for-2 for hot trainer Brad Cox, this is a horse Beychok admitted that he should have bet on sooner. Certainly before his odds were trimmed from 110-1 after he won two weeks ago on the Kentucky Jockey Club undercard.
“He certainly passes the eye test,” he said, “and he looks like a horse that is kind of push button.”
The breeding also attracted Beychok’s attention. Mandaloun is by Into Mischief, the stallion who sired this summer’s Derby winner Authentic, and out of an Empire Maker mare.
“He’s regally bred, and he’s trained by Brad Cox, who is going to win a Derby pretty soon,” Beychok said. “He’s on my list, and he’s in caps. He would be one of my top two with Red Flag if you could find him somewhere better than 55-1. In 2021 his odds are not coming down.”
The object of the game
Derby futures are as much about finding the right price as they are about forecasting the growth of young horses. They are also about getting lucky.
“When you’re betting these futures, you’re just trying to get this horse in the gate at the Derby,” Beychok said. “You’re betting at a bigger number than what he presents on that day.”
Beychok had that strategy when he backed By My Standards at 33-1 in a futures bet for last month’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. That was better than the 16-1 odds that he carried at post time. And much better than his eighth-place finish.
“I’m going to keep betting those,” Beychok said. “What I’m talking about here is to get a horse at 100-1 or 150-1 and just get him in the gate. You’ve got so much value there over the rest of your competitors. Eventually I’m going to come out on top, because I'm getting value, and that’s what it’s all about.”