Saratoga 2023: Schuylerville odds & analysis

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

The 105th running of the Grade 3, $175,000 Schuylerville Stakes is the first graded stakes race of the 40-day Saratoga meeting. For 2-year-old fillies, the six-furlong sprint drew a field of 11 that is led by the Todd Pletcher trainee Wine On Tap.

Hall of Famer Pletcher is one of four trainers with previous victories in the Schuylerville. He won the traditional opening-day feature five times from 2002 to 2016, including in 2003 with Ashado, who went on to be a two-time champion.

Among 11 juveniles slated to race on Thursday are eight recent maiden special-weight winners coming from six tracks, one stakes winner and one filly who is making the first start of her career.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Schuylerville with the official track morning line. The race is scheduled for 5:44 p.m. EDT and is carded as race 9 of 10.

1. Carmelina, 5-1. Maximus Mischief – Robert Reid Jr. / Jose Ortiz – 1: 1-0-0 - $37,800. Carmelina ships to Saratoga from Parx Racing after an almost six-length victory in an eight-horse field as the 5-2 favorite. The $44,000 weanling purchase went right to the front and did not look back, widening her lead at each point of call in her 4 1/2-furlong debut. She is projected to be one of the pacesetters but will have to break sharply to avoid trouble from the inside post position. Win contender.

2. Becky’s Joker, 15-1. Practical Joke – Gary Contessa / Javier Castellano – 0: M-0-0 - $0. Becky’s Joker will make the first start of her career in this stakes race for veteran trainer Gary Contessa, who returns to New York racing with horses stabled at Saratoga after being absent for a few years. The $130,000 weanling buy is the first foal from an unraced mare. She has been training on a weekly basis for this debut at the Spa since May with a bullet blowout on July 7 of three furlongs in a speedy 34.80 seconds. Contessa typically does not win with first-time starters. Toss.

3. Union Suit, 20-1. Union Rags – Graham Motion / Manny Franco – 2: 1-1-0 - $50,400. Union Suit is one of only two fillies in this race who ran in a stakes race, finishing second in the Astoria at Belmont Park last month behind Closing Act, who is also in this race. Union Suit was a $9,000 bargain yearling purchase, and she broke her maiden at Horseshoe Indianapolis in May with a front-end effort as a 2-1 favorite. Subsequently, Union Suit was sold to Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Madaket Stables, who join with the original owners from Highlight Thoroughbreds. Graham Motion became the trainer after the maiden victory. Live long shot.

4. Status Seeker, 12-1. Upstart – Rudy Rodriguez / Joel Rosario – 1: 1-0-0 - $49,500. Status Seeker rallied from off the pace to break her maiden at Belmont going five furlongs at 4-1 against a field of six. She was a $45,000 2-year-old purchase in March. Her victory was by a half-length and earned a slow speed figure compared with several others in this field. Toss.

5. Saratoga Secret, 4-1. Arrogate – D. Wayne Lukas / Luis Saez – 1: 1-0-0 - $69,600. Saratoga Secret will try to get Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas his seventh win in the Schuylerville. Lukas won this race for the first time in 1986 with Sacahuista, who would go on to win the 1987 Breeders’ Cup Distaff and be named the champion 3-year-old filly. Saratoga Secret broke her maiden by three lengths at Ellis Park when she beat a field of six at 3-1 after pressing the early pace. Luis Saez stays on board. Use underneath.

6. Closing Act, 10-1. Munnings – Steve Asmussen / Tyler Gaffalione – 2: 2-0-0 - $124,500) Closing Act is the only stakes winner in this field, having won the Astoria after a maiden victory at Churchill Downs in May. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen won the Schylerville three times, most recently in 2013. Both of Closing Act’s victories came with closing efforts, and a fast pace is expected on Thursday. Although the speed figure for her wins came back low, the 10-1 morning line odds seem to be a bit of an overlay. Win contender.

7. Wine On Tap, 5-2. Tapit – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 1: 1-0-0 - $49,500. Wine On Tap pressed the pace in her debut and drew off to a three-length victory as the even-money favorite in a five-horse field. She was made the 5-2 morning line favorite partially based on the $600,000 price that she fetched as a yearling. Todd Pletcher knows how to win the Schuylerville, and a victory would tie him with his mentor Lukas. A stalking trip would be ideal against this field. Top choice.

8. Kiss for Luck, 30-1. Accelerate – Robert Reid Jr. / Kendrick Carmouche – 1: 1-0-0 - $27,000. Kiss for Luck is the second filly entered by trainer Butch Reid, and she was also a debut winner at Parx. She broke her maiden in May on the lead against five fillies, but her speed figure was by far the lowest in the field. Toss.

9. Dancing Diana, 6-1. Bolt d’Oro – James Lawrence III / John Velazquez – 1: 1-0-0 - $28,500. Dancing Diana romped to a more than seven-length victory in her debut maiden effort with odds of 7-2 at her home base of Delaware Park. The daughter of Bolt d’Oro sold for $100,000 as a yearling and is expected to be one of the pacesetters in this field. John Velazquez picks up the mount as Dancing Diana ships up to the Spa. Use underneath.

10. Mila Junes, 30-1. Tapiture – J. K. Sweezey / Jose Gomez – 1: 1-0-0 - $34,500) Mila Junes will ship to Saratoga after her maiden victory on a wet and fast track at Monmouth Park in June, where she rallied from fourth to win by a half-length as a 54-1 long shot. The daughter of Tapiture was a $20,000 purchase at auction last year. Toss.

11. Sugar Treat (6-1 – Enticed – Mark Casse / Flavien Prat – 1: 1-0-0 - $24,000) Sugar Treat got her maiden breaker in her first race for Hall of Famer Mark Casse on the Tapeta track at Gulfstream Park last month, overcoming a troubled trip. She beat a filly who came back to win her next start. The $120,000 purchase in March of this year shipped to New York to train after the win in Florida. Sugar Treat is owned by two of Casse’s major owners, Gary Barber and DJ Stable. Use underneath.

Summary: The four Hall of Fame trainers in this field combined to win the Schuylerville 15 times, and the winner of the 2023 edition is likely to be one of their fillies.

Experience is lacking in this field, with the 11 fillies combined having run only 12 times. With two of the starts, Closing Act is the leading money winner, the only stakes winner in the field and won with a stalking style that should work well with a fast pace anticipated. Morning-line odds of 10-1 seem a bit high, but even 8-1 or 6-1 would be excellent value for this Asmussen runner.

Wine On Tap has the top speed figure in the field after he sat behind the leader a bit and then drew clear down the stretch in his maiden score. The gray daughter of Tapit flashed his talent and backed up the $600,000 purchase price. Pletcher is hard to beat with classy 2-year-olds like this, and that makes Wine On Tap the top choice.