Scenarios: What horses need to get into Kentucky Derby & Oaks

Prep victories Saturday for futures favorite Journalism and Bob Baffert-trained Rodríguez clinched their invitations to Kentucky Derby 2025. They joined at least 11 other 3-year-olds in being assured of running for the roses May 3.

As many as five other horses racing Tuesday in the postponed Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland will join them. So might three others from overseas who have invitations awaiting formal responses by a Monday deadline. In the meantime, Connections for no fewer than six more must hurry up and wait for the final qualifying standings.

The Lexington (G3), the last prep that is worth 20-10-6-4-2 points to its top five finishers Saturday at Keeneland, does not have any entrants who would get into the Derby field. That is unless there was a lot of attrition.

For the Kentucky Oaks (G1), three or four berths will be decided Monday after the rescheduled Ashland (G1) at Keeneland. The field of 14 also hinges on whether one, two or maybe three fillies beat Wednesday’s late-nomination deadline.

The math is one thing. Dropouts are another, and history says attrition will become a reality in the next 20 days. If nothing else, that precedent gives hope to connections on the stand-by lists.

Kentucky Derby

Of the six colts and one gelding entered in the rain-delayed Blue Grass, only Owen Almighty is certain of his Derby bid. Everyone else is in 24th place or lower on the qualifying leaderboard.

Chancer McPatrick would advance with a top-four result Tuesday. Burnham Square and Render Judgment get in if they hit the board. River Thames, East Avenue and Admiral Dennis have to finish in the top two.

Horses with 50 points are on the bubble as is Madaket Road, who has 46. The tiebreaker at 50 would be earnings from non-restricted stakes. Among the horses who could land on that number, Chancer McPatrick has the edge with his $550,000 plus the $125,000 if he finished fourth in the Blue Grass.

Built, Neoequos and Baeza could get in, but they might need international qualifiers Luxor Café and Heart of Honor to send their regrets. Luxor Café, who was an early Triple Crown nominee, earned the Japan berth, but that country’s racing liaison Kate Hunter said no firm decision had been made yet on whether to make the trip. A late-nomination payment was made early Sunday on behalf of UAE Derby (G2) winner Admire Daytona, so he is ticketed for Louisville. UAE runner-up Heart of Honor still needs his England connections to pay a $6,000 late-nomination fee by the close of business Monday to get him into the race.

Kentucky Oaks

The top two Ashland finishers will earn invitations to the Kentucky Oaks. Because all seven entrants have at least 12 1/2 points each, it is as simple as that.

Monday’s race would send another filly to the Oaks if Muhimma were to finish third behind two rivals. That is because she would land on 50 points and hold the earnings tiebreaker.

As many as five horses could end up with exactly 50 points. If so, at least two could advance. What complicates this right now is Queen Azteca. Even though she could not use the points she earned finishing fifth against males Saturday in the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan, the money counted. It meant she will finish no lower than 14th in the Oaks standings. To get in, her Norway-based owner Glaesner Racing must pay a $1,500 late nomination fee by Wednesday.

If Queen Azteca is not flown to Kentucky to run for the lilies, then the next filly up with 50 points could take her place. Fondly and Ahavah are on the qualifying bubble. So is Anna’s Promise, whose owner Bell Racing would need to meet the Wednesday nomination deadline if she were to qualify.

If La Cara, who already is assured of her Oaks berth, were to finish first or second in the Ashland, that would take one invitation away from the 50-point club.