Saudi Cup fair odds: Odds on is too short for Forever Young

It's hard to believe that a horse who won both the Saudi Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic last year has unfinished business, but the connections of Forever Young surely must think they have a chance to have their horse go down as one of the all-time greats with an even better year this year.

Starting Saturday in the world's richest race, Forever Young embarks on a journey that can see him become the first two-time winner of the Group 1 Saudi Cup, avenge his loss in the Dubai World Cup (G1) and become only the second two-time winner of America's richest race. What happens in between is anyone's guess, but just the opportunity to see him race as a 5-year-old given what he already has accomplished to date is a marvel.

Of course, great expectations backed by a great résumé bring not-so-great prices. Forever Young was 2-3 with an overseas bookmaker about 48 hours before the Saudi Cup. That is a tremendous underlay versus the 2-1 price at which I would be interested.

He is the most likely winner of this race, of course. His win here last year was the race of the year, and his Breeders' Cup cemented him as an international dynamo. But he faces real changes in this one-turn, 1 1/8-mile race led by American invaders Nysos, Bishops Bay and Nevada Beach – the top three contenders in antepost wagering behind Forever Young.

Nysos won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile the same day Forever Young won the Classic. The former beat Nevada Beach next out, and the latter beat him in the Classic. Still, as the lone America-based 3-year-old last year to win a Grade 1 against older horses on the dirt, Nevada Beach merits respect even against two horses who beat him.

Nysos should benefit from the one-turn, nine-furlong configuration, but that same benefit applies to Bishops Bay too, and we get a better price with the Cigar Mile (G2) winner. Trainer Brad Cox opted to run two others in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and target the Saudi Cup with Bishops Bay. Even though the Pegasus did not work out, I do think Bishops Bay is live here.

Long-shot-wise, Luxor Cafe and Star of Wonder intrigue me at big prices. Luxor Cafe has name recognition, so I'm not sure if we'll get high enough odds on him, but Star of Wonder we definitely will. Star of Wonder is a former Cox trainee sold to Saudi interests by breeder WinStar Farm after a third-place finish in the Pimlico Special (G3) last year. He has races that fit with improvement. A win is a reach, but he is my exotics key.