Saudi Cup fair odds: Bet against Japan in world's richest race

Any time your most likely winner is not the projected favorite, there is the potential for opportunity.

So it goes in the Group 1 Saudi Cup on Saturday, when 15 are expected to face starter's orders in the world's richest race. Forever Young is the current favorite in antepost markets, with Romantic Warrior a clear second choice before a big gap to U.S.-based Rattle N Roll.

It pains me to go against Forever Young and his compatriot Ushba Tesoro after being so bullish on their chances in races like the Dubai World Cup (G1), Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic last year, but the prices just will not be right on them here. I have Forever Young on par with Romantic Warrior, so why not take the longer price? As for Ushba Tesoro, my read on his past performances is that he is tailing off.

As for Romantic Warrior, what is not to like? This 7-year-old Acclamation gelding sports an eight-race win streak with wins at three tracks and distances, including 1 1/8 miles four weeks ago at Meydan. There is nothing to suggest this Danny Shum trainee will not fire another superlative performance since he has handled shipping already with such aplomb. I am excited to bet this horse at 2-1 or better, and he is a single for me on all multi-race wagers.

As for the others, there might be opportunity with Facteur Chevau, who is on a four-race losing streak but definitely has efforts that can compete against this group, especially outside the top two. Throw in the fact that both Rattle N Roll and Ushba Tesoro have name recognition among international punters, and Facteur Cheval could be overlooked.