Saudi Cup fair odds: Familiar U.S.-Japan battle lines are drawn

I've identified White Abarrio as the most likely winner of the Grade 1, $20 million Saudi Cup on Saturday in Riyadh. The more difficult question is whether the star power among the other 13 likely starters is enough to create value on the Breeders' Cup Classic winner.

I also saw White Abarrio as the most likely winner of America's richest race, and that was even with the question regarding the 1 1/4-mile distance. Now he's in the world's richest race but at the much friendier-to-him distance of 1 1/8 miles. He is the horse to beat, but the notoriety could have him dipping below my 7-2 fair odds.

Kentucky-bred Lemon Pop comes in off a win in the Champions Cup (G1) at Chukyo in his resident Japan. Like the Saudi Cup, that came at nine furlongs on the dirt, and given Japan's prowess on the international scene, its best merit respect here. But I envision a horse like this as a more likely underlay that White Abarrio.

After the top two, I have no strong opinion on most likely winners, as this is a very evenly matched group. But given the presence of U.S.-based Grade 1 winners National Treasure and Saudi Crown plus Cigar Mile (G2) winner Hoist the Gold, it's fair to expect a spirited pace, which could (and stop me if you've heard this one before), set things up for Señor Buscador at an overlaid price.

My best guess is that Señor Buscador will be worth a win bet, and I'll key in trifectas with White Abarrio if he is my fair odds or better. Otherwise, I'll sprinkle in the best value based on fair odds and actual tote, but I do think Señor Buscador will be worth mixing in all spots at the expected price.