Saudi Cup fair odds: Find out chances for Taiba, Jun Light Bolt

It has long been accepted that the best dirt racing is in the United States, but Japan keeps making inroads in this regard, starting with Marche Lorraine's upset win in the 2021 Breeders' Cup Distaff at Del Mar.

The Land of the Rising Sun could take another step down that road in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where Jun Light Bolt is the international community's best chance to upset multiple Grade 1 winner Taiba in the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1), but just how good of a chance is it?

From a fair odds perspective, I give Taiba a 33 percent chance to win this race whereas Jun Light Bolt is at 16.6 percent. Put another way, I see Taiba as having a slightly less than twice the chance of winning as Jun Light Bolt.

Admittedly, the process of filling out the fair odds for the 13-horse field was mostly academic past the top five choices. The odds on my top two choices, the aforementioned Taiba and Jun Light Bolt, give them nearly a 50 percent chance of winning the race. My next three choices, Cafe Pharoah, Country Grammer and Crown Pride, combine for just shy of 25 percent chance. This leaves the other eight horses taken together with just a 25 percent chance.

Given my confidence level on dealing with the whole field versus my top two choices, from a wagering perspective, I am only interested in betting Taiba at 2-1 or better, or Jun Light Bolt at 5-1 or better. The presence of known commodities such as the three Cs should create value on one of the two horses I want to bet.