Saudi Cup: If Forever Young is only 90%, consider others

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

I've been fortunate to spend this week at the Saudi Cup at witness these great horses first-hand. And the star of the show no doubt is Forever Young. He's won 10 of 13 starts with earnings just shy of $20 million and will certainly add to that total today. Trainer Bob Baffert even called him a 'unicorn' and 'incredible'. That's hard to argue with. 

But sitting in his trainer's press conference this week, Yashito Yahagi didn't inspire confidence. First of all, this is a horse with a storied career that is starting to come to an end. 

Watch here when his trainer is asked about his plan for this year. He is overcome with emotion and has to pause. Then he basically rules out the Breeders' Cup and mentions Dubai. 

The other thing that gave me concern was when he talked about Forever Young being 90%, or over 90%. 

Now, a 90% Forever Young is quite likely to be good enough to beat this field, but given the odds I think it justifies taking some shots against him. Looking at Forever Young's career past performances, he's usually given a softer spot off a layoff and he came into both Breeders' Cup Classics second off the layoff. 

My take is that this race is clearly a prep for the Dubai World Cup, which he hasn't won yet. He was third in that race last year. So it's likely after today he hopes to go out a winner in Dubai, as the only horse to win arguably the world's three most important dirt races for older horses: The Saudi Cup, the Dubai World Cup and the Breeders' Cup Classic. 

I'll be rooting for Forever Young, but betting-wise I'll take a shot on Bishops Bay, Banishing and a little Nysos.