Saturday's Bailout Special: Stick with the hot hand at Keeneland
During Keeneland’s Spring Meet, I introduced my “Bailout Special” which, simply, is a handicapping piece that highlights which horse I think will win each card’s finale.
Had a bad day at the track? Use the “Bailout Special” to get some of that money back.
Have a good day at the track and want to finish strong? There’s the “Bailout Special.”
Maybe you’re looking for a bold single to end a Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequence.
Use the “Bailout Special.”
The horse I land on won’t always be the horse with the best perceived value. Neither will it be the horse I think “could win if the pace scenario sets up perfectly.”
My selection will be the horse that I think has the absolute best chance to win the race regardless of projected odds.
Were some of my winners (I went 7-for-16 in the Spring Meet) the prohibitive favorite? Yes.
Were some of the winners so-called easy selections? Yes.
But the goal is to pick the winner of the last race of the day at Keeneland every day they run. I’ll have some horses scratch, and if the weather is bad and the finale comes off the turf, there may not be a pick to play.
So without further ado, here is my “Bailout Special” for Saturday at Keeneland.
Race 11: Maiden Special Weight for 2-year old fillies at 6 furlongs
Much like Friday’s finale, the final race on Saturday is a maiden special weight race for juvenile fillies. Twelve are entered in the main body with one also-eligible. They will be going six panels on the main track.
Of the fillies in the main body, only four have raced, meaning the majority of the field will be making debuts. While Friday’s finale had more information to work with, Saturday’s “Bail-out Special” is going to prove to be more difficult.
Difficult does not mean impossible, and while I will readily admit that I had much more confidence in my selection on opening day, I do have a solid lean in this particular race.
Again, there is no precipitation in the forecast for Lexington until Sunday at the earliest, so this race should feature a fast track surface.
The filly that has the most racing experience coming into this race is Mom’s Pass (post 4, 9-2 morning line). She has raced four times, all on the turf, so this marks a switch to dirt. She finished second in her first two tries, sixth in her third race and finished fourth last out at Kentucky Downs last month.
The other three fillies that have race experience have only run once. The only one to have hit the board of those three is Pythoness (post 1) who finished third in her debut on the dirt at Colonial Downs last month.
She’s Not Not Fast (post 6) finished eighth, beaten by 33 ¼ lengths in her debut at Laurel in September. Motu (post 12) finished seventh, beaten by only 4 ½ lengths in her debut at Churchill Downs in September.
There are a few fillies making their debut that have a chance to win first time out, and I feel those would be: Further Lane (post 5), Could You (post 7) and Bird Map (post 9).
The goal for the “Bailout Special” is to simply pick the winner of the finale of each Keeneland card, and I’m totally fine with riding the hot hand, as I’m picking the same trainer two days in a row.
My selection is first-time starter FURTHER LANE (post 5, 4-1 morning line favorite) for trainer Brad Cox under jockey Javier Castellano. This daughter of Lea has been putting in strong workouts and Cox wins at a 20% with first time starters.
While I’m concerned that the horse with the most experience (Mom’s Pass) has a few advantages over Further Lane, I believe the latter has shown enough in the morning to get the nod.
Key Further Lane over Mom’s Pass, Could You, Bird Map and Motu (5 over 4,7,9,12) in exactas and trifectas.