Saturday's Bailout Special: Roll out a Keeneland winner with Club Car
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Photo:
Courtesy of Keeneland
During Keeneland’s Spring Meet, I introduced my “Bailout Special” which, simply, is a handicapping piece that highlights which horse I think will win each card’s finale.
Had a bad day at the track? Use the “Bailout Special” to get some of that money back.
Have a good day at the track and want to finish strong? There’s the “Bailout Special.”
Maybe you’re looking for a bold single to end a Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequence. Use the Bailout Special.
The horse I land on won’t always be the horse with the best perceived value. Neither will it be the horse I think “could win if the pace scenario sets up perfectly.”
My selection will be the horse that I think has the absolute best chance to win the race regardless of projected odds.
Were some of my winners (I went 7-for-16 in the Spring Meet) the prohibitive favorite? Yes.
Were some of the winners so-called easy selections? Yes.
But the goal is to pick the winner of the last race of the day at Keeneland every day they run. I’ll have some horses scratch, and if the weather is bad and the finale comes off the turf, there may not be a pick to play.
Without further ado...
Race 10 $71,000 Maiden Special Weight fillies and mares 3-years old and up
6 furlongs on dirt; post time 6:03 p.m. ET
This race has shaped up to be one of the tougher“Bailout Specials for me to handicap because I really like the chances of three fillies to break their maiden here.
There are some first-time starters in this race which I give very little chance to win. Some of the entries here, while experienced, probably won’t hit the board, as I’m expecting my three main contenders to finish 1-2-3.
So, let’s separate the wheat from the chaff. My top three choices (in post position order until the reveal) are:
Getridofwhatailesu (post 1), trained by Brad Cox and to be ridden by Florent Geroux. She happens to be the morning line favorite at 3-1.
Club Car (post 4) for trainer Ben Colebrook and jockey Corey Lanerie, coming off a 135 day layoff and 5-1 on the morning line.
And First Wave (post 5) with Tyler Gaffalione up for trainer Rusty Arnold. She is also 5-1 on the morning line.
There is plenty to like about the horse on the rail, Getridofwhatailesu. She was in training as a 2-year old, with 12 published workouts from August 11 through December 8 of last year, and never made the races.
She was off on the work tab until July 5 of this year and worked regularly until her debut on Sept. 15 at Churchill Downs, where she finished second, beaten by a length and a quarter in a seven furlong maiden special weight affair. She garnered decent speed figures in debut, and she should be well-bet in this race.
Her first published work after her debut was solid and she’s had a maintenance work since then. She’s a good bet to hit the board in this race.
First Wave also had plenty of workouts as a 2-year-old but never made the races as a freshman. She debuted at Churchill Downs on May 26 this year after nine published workouts in 2018 and three prior to her debut.
She finished second, beaten by 3/4 lengths that day at Churchill Downs, and then raced twice on the turf at Saratoga this summer, finishing second by a neck in July in a 5 ½-furlong sprint and seventh by three lengths in a 1 1/16-mile route.
First Wave returns to a sprint here and faced tougher company than Getridofwhatailesu did in her debut. I think First Wave either wins this race or finishes second. Her work tab from her last race leading up to this shows she should be running strong.
But my choice for Bailout Special on Saturday is CLUB CAR. She has hit the board in all three of her starts, at Keeneland in April and at Churchill Downs twice in May.
Yes, she’s coming into the race fresh off the bench, and her workout pattern looks promising. But it’s her race experience that I like best of all. She has faced sub-22 second early quarters in both of her races at Churchill Downs and was able to sit just off of those earlier pacesetters both times and got herself into position to strike.
Club Car is fresh, should have plenty in the tank, and will be able to stay close enough throughout the early stages of the race to where she can rely on her fitness to power through the lane. She’s my top choice to win and therefore my Bailout Special.
Had a bad day at the track? Use the “Bailout Special” to get some of that money back.
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