Saturday speed figs: Where do Kentucky Derby preps rank?
Eclatant led all performers with a 146 Horse Racing Nation speed figure at Keeneland in the ninth race. The 4-year-old filly by Into Mischief captured a seven-furlong dirt stakes race at 7-2 odds. This marked her fifth career victory in her eighth career start.
Crude Velocity earned a 140 HRN speed figure at Santa Anita in a 6 1/2-furlong dirt allowance optional claimer. The 3-year-old colt by Beau Liam dominated in a dominant win by 6 3/4 lengths at 2-5 odds, recording his second career win from two starts.
Quint's Brew completed the top three with a 137 HRN speed figure at Laurel Park in a seven-furlong dirt stakes race. The 5-year-old gelding by Mosler scored in a dominant win by 5 3/4 lengths at 2-5 odds, securing his seventh career victory from 12 starts.
Saturday's top 10 speed figures
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | Eclatant | Into Mischief | 4F | KEE 9 | 7f dirt |
| 140 | Crude Velocity | Beau Liam | 3C | SA 2 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 137 | Quint's Brew | Mosler | 5G | LRL 8 | 7f dirt |
| 136 | Saudi Crown | Always Dreaming | 6H | KEE 7 | 7f dirt |
| 133 | Further Ado | Gun Runner | 3C | KEE 11 | 1 1/8 dirt |
| 131 | Porosity | Maclean's Music | 4G | AQU 2 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 130 | Gilded Bandit | Charlatan | 3C | KEE 2 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 128 | Touchdown Arkansas | Bee Jersey | 5H | OP 8 | 6f dirt |
| 126 | Point Dume | Into Mischief | 5G | AQU 6 | 7f dirt |
| 122 | Munnings Express | Munnings | 4F | AQU 1 | 6f dirt |
Fastest maiden winners
Gilded Bandit posted the day's highest maiden winner figure with a 130 HRN speed figure at Keeneland. The 3-year-old colt by Charlatan captured a 6 1/2-furlong dirt maiden special weight at 3-1 odds in his second career start. He is out of Diamond Ore, a Tapit mare who earned $43,000.
Delicious Diva impressed with a 115 HRN speed figure in a 1 1/16-mile dirt maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park. The 4-year-old filly by Hard Spun won at 4-1 odds in her seventh career start. Her dam Dangerous Diva by Deputy Minister earned $103,000, and her top sibling Cautious Giant by Giant's Causeway was Grade 2 placed and earned $670,000.
Falcon Jet earned a 111 HRN speed figure at Laurel Park in his sixth career start. The 3-year-old colt by Justify won a six-furlong dirt maiden special weight at 2-5 odds. His dam Starship Bonita by Gone Astray earned $577,000.
Saturday's top maiden winners
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | Gilded Bandit | Charlatan | 3C | KEE 2 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 115 | Delicious Diva | Hard Spun | 4F | OP 1 | 1 1/16 dirt |
| 111 | Falcon Jet | Justify | 3C | LRL 3 | 6f dirt |
| 110 | Mo Koko | Mo Town | 3C | SA 3 | 6f dirt |
| 108 | Call On Me | Twirling Candy | 3F | KEE 4 | 1 1/16 turf |
| 106 | Peppermint Dash | Twirling Candy | 3F | SA 12 | 6 1/2f turf |
| 99 | Musical Power | Maclean's Music | 3F | GP 3 | 5f syn |
| 98 | Frosted Punk | Frosted | 4G | GP 1 | 1 1/16 syn |
| 95 | Likeness | Gun Runner | 3C | GP 5 | 1 1/8 syn |
| 95 | Marcan Love | Tacitus | 3G | LRL 1 | 1 mile dirt |
About HRN speed figures
HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.
The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.
Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically.
Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:
Top HRN figure 26.2% winners
Top Beyer figure 28.1% winners
Top TimeformUS figure 28.4% winners
Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.
Note: For the fastest maiden winners mentioned, all dam and sibling earnings are based on North American starts only.