Saturday guide: Fayette Stakes + early Breeders’ Cup angles
Hit Show had a good year all in one spring night when he won the Dubai World Cup (G1). He is on deck to race Saturday in defense of his 2024 win in the Grade 3, $350,000 Fayette Stakes on closing day of the fall meet at Keeneland.
The 11-horse field for the two-turn, 1 1/8-mile race on the main track is so deep that Hit Show, who carries the top weight of 126 pounds, is not even favored. At 6-1, Wathnan Racing’s 5-year-old multimillionaire who is trained by Brad Cox is the fourth choice on the morning line with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding from the outside post.
Click here for Keeneland entries and results.
Bracket Buster, who won the Oklahoma Derby (G3), is the 3-1 program favorite for trainer Vicki Oliver and jockey John Velázquez. Gosger, who won the Lexington (G1) in April at Keeneland, is 9-2 after finishing sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) for Brendan Walsh and Luis Sáez. Those 3-year-olds carry 118 pounds each in their first try against older competition. Blame in 2009 was the last sophomore to win the Fayette.
Dragoon Guard, a 4-year-old carrying 122 pounds, is the 7-2 second choice after his 4 1/4-length, first-level allowance win last month at Churchill Downs. Also from Cox’s barn, he is paired with Florent Géroux, who rode Hit Show into the winner’s circle in last year’s Fayette.
Even though he is not racing in the Breeders’ Cup, Bracket Buster will merit attention Wednesday at Del Mar. That is where a one-quarter ownership share in him goes up for bids in the Keeneland championship sale.
The $600,000 Bryan Station (G3) for a full field of 3-year-olds going a mile on the turf and the black-type, $250,000 Bowman Mill for 2-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on the main track are the other stakes on Keeneland’s 10-race card. The first post is at 1 p.m. EDT.
The Bowman Mill is scheduled as race 6 at 3:40 p.m. EDT, the Bryan Station the eighth at 4:44 p.m. and the Fayette the ninth at 5:16 p.m. Live coverage of Keeneland is on FanDuel TV and streaming on the Keeneland website.
Free past performances for Saturday’s major stakes are courtesy of Brisnet.
HRN handicappers
Ed DeRosa looked at the Fayette field and found some familiar names. And then he decided they would be underlays. He identified a value horse who has been out of the spotlight and hopefully out of the chalk in his fair-odds analysis.
Chip Gehrke pointed the spotlight at the Fayette, especially Bracket Buster and Hit Show. Their performance Saturday will have an impact on the top-10 list of 3-year-old males. Gehrke’s perspective is in his weekly division rankings.
Super Screener creator Mike Shutty respects 3-year-olds Bracket Buster and Hit Show, but his best win play for the Fayette is a year older. Hear his analysis of the race on the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. This week’s episode also features Super Screener angles for the Breeders’ Cup next week as well as Marshall Gramm’s analysis of the latest computer-betting controversies at Keeneland.
2025 Fayette G3
Breeders’ Cup handicapping
Sovereignty already is the heavy favorite in futures betting to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic next Saturday at Del Mar. Cases for and against him and the other nine horses in the $7 million race are made by Matt Shifman in his odds and analysis.
Trainer John Shirreffs returns to the Breeders’ Cup Classic for the first time since Zenyatta lost to Blame 15 years ago in one of the most memorable renewals of the race. Brian Zipse focused on Shirreffs and Baeza in the 15th weekly installment of his Breeders’ Cup Classic watch.
Shifman and Zipse found 10 live long shots among the Breeders’ Cup fields. They analyzed and compared them in this week’s HorseCenter.
Padraic Manocchio looked again at the 13 most influential prep races for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He went beyond the trip notes to analyze them.
Who is peaking right now for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and how do we know? Candice Curtis compared speed figures from then and now, and they revealed the top contender for 2025 is not Sovereignty.
The Breeders’ Cup Super Screener has analysis of all 14 races with the 207 pre-entries announced Wednesday. Get it now and be locked in for updates coming after Monday’s post-position draw.