Saturday guide: Can Mystik Dan find the winner's circle again?
Churchill Downs presents Stephen Foster preview day Saturday, with six local preps for the major graded stakes scheduled for June 26. The feature is the Grade 3, 1 1/8-mile Blame Stakes for 4-year-olds and up, which has drawn a strong field of 10 for the $275,000 purse.
The headliner for the Blame is Mystik Dan, whose last trip around the Churchill Downs dirt was when he won the 150th Kentucky Derby last May. In his most recent start, he finished second by a nose to Saudi Crown in a 1 1/16-mile stakes at Oaklawn held on Derby day this year. Trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr both like what they've seen since the colt's return to the scene of his most famous victory.
Any horse out of this field could be the favorite in another setting, but in this case it is Most Wanted at 7-2. Brad Cox sends Most Wanted to the Blame to try to repeat the Oaklawn finish with another of his rising older horse stars. Most Wanted comes into the race off two second-place finishes in graded stakes. Last out it was Fierceness who beat him in the Alysheba (G2) and in March, Skippylongstocking beat him in the Challenger (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. But he will get no class relief here.
Steve Asmussen's Hall of Fame is back after his third-place finish behind Most Wanted in the Alysheba. Speedy Banishing is in for David Jacobson after a dead-heat second in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), and Antiquarian, Todd Pletcher's entrant, is moving into stakes company after a solid win in a Gulfstream allowance to kick off the season. And that's not even counting Maryland horse of the year Post Time, Ben Ali (G3) winner Tennessee Lamb or Razorback (G3) winner Alexander Helios.
The Blame is race 10, with post time set for 5:27 p.m. EDT. Coverage of Churchill Downs races can be found on FanDuel TV.
Free past performances for the Blame, as well as other Churchill Downs stakes, are courtesy of Brisnet.
Here are the top speed figures from the last year for the Blame stakes entrants.
| Post | Horse | Beyer* | TFUS* | Brisnet | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katonah | 98 | 122 | 102 | 122 |
| 2 | Alexander Helios | 102 | 121 | 104 | 128 |
| 3 | Antiquarian | 93 | 118 | 102 | 127 |
| 4 | Mystik Dan | 101 | 125 | 102 | 132 |
| 5 | Best Actor | 95 | 122 | 96 | 122 |
| 6 | Hall of Fame | 106 | 127 | 104 | 136 |
| 7 | Most Wanted | 105 | 130 | 105 | 133 |
| 8 | Banishing | 106 | 129 | 104 | 135 |
| 9 | Post Time | 105 | 125 | 107 | 136 |
| 10 | Tennessee Lamb | 87 | 117 | 93 | 122 |
*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are presented courtesy of Daily Racing Form.
Pace makes the race
TimeformUS predicts a fast, pressured pace for the Blame, with as many as three speedsters fighting for the lead and three more pressing the pace. Mystik Dan will be among the pressers, though he could rate into a tracking position. Midpack trackers Antiquarian and Tennsee Lamb will be following the Derby winner. Closers Katonah and Post Time will be at the back of the pack.
Though it projects to be a fast pace, there are no pure sprinters here and a complete meltdown is probably off the table. Churchill Downs is usually forward-favoring but it has played fair for stalker types in route races.
HRN handicappers
Ed DeRosa has fair odds for the Blame Stakes, where he thinks the lone closer offers a chance for value.
HorseCenter's Matt Shifman and Brian Zipse have Blame plays as well as picks for the Arlington (G3), the turf-route prep for the Wise Dan (G2) on Foster night.
Mystik Dan's rider, Brian Hernandez Jr., is on the Ron Flatter Podcast this week with the inside scoop on the Derby winner as well as Thorpedo Anna. NYRA's Richard Migliore has updates on the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga, and Super Screener's Mike Shutty talks Belmont plus the Blame and other Churchill Downs stakes. Listen now.
The Shawnee (G3) has become a stepping stone for older fillies and mares, and this year's edition has several who could continue the trend. Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis go head-to-head handicapping the field.
Laurie and Ashley also take on the Blame Stakes and Mystik Dan.
Finally, Super Screener's Mike Shutty has zeroed-in on a 15-1 top long shot in the Blame.
The Blame Stakes, as well as the Shawnee and Arlington, are part of this week's Super Screener. It is part of the Belmont Stakes Super Screener bundle, which you can get now.