Saturday guide: Peter Pan is a proven Belmont Stakes prep
Saturday's Grade 3, 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont at Aqueduct is a proven producer of Belmont Stakes runners with recent success in the winner's circle.
In 2023, Arcangelo used his win in the Peter Pan as a jumping-off point for the Belmont Stakes, Travers and eventual champion 3-year-old male Eclipse Award. Tonalist, who won the Peter Pan in 2014, upset California Chrome's Triple Crown in the Belmont and then turned in a fifth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
This year's edition has drawn nine 3-year-old colts and one gelding who skipped the Derby trail or tried it and decided later stakes riches were more worth their while.
Post time for the Peter Pan is Saturday at 6:46 p.m. EDT. It will be part of FS1's "America's Day at the Races" beginning at 4 p.m. EDT. FanDuel TV will also show the race during its regular daily coverage of Belmont at Aqueduct.
Free past performances for the Peter Pan and other Belmont at Aqueduct stakes are provided courtesy of Brisnet.
Captain Cook, the 2-1 morning line favorite, comes in for trainer Rick Dutrow and St. Elias Stables. Jockey Manny Franco is in the irons for his fourth ride atop this Practical Joke colt. In his prior start Captain Cook was on the pace in the Wood Memorial (G2), where he found Bob Baffert's Rodriguez too much to handle. In the Withers, Captain Cook took control halfway through the race and led the field home easily.
Chad Brown's Hill Road is the 5-2 second choice. The Quality Road colt began his career in England on turf for Adrian Murray but switched to dirt in his U.S. debut in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He was the only closer to sniff the board, running third to Citizen Bull and Gaming and making his backers very excited about his chances for the Kentucky Derby trail. Switched to Chad Brown over the winter, Hill Road last was seen running behind Owen Almighty and Chancer McPatrick in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He has been crying out for more ground to complete his bold closing move, and he should get it in the Peter Pan.
Here are the lifetime top speed figures for the Peter Pan entrants.
| No. | Horse | Beyer* | TFUS* | Brisnet | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vassimo | 89 | 109 | 92 | 112 |
| 2 | Happily Delusional | 79 | 99 | 96 | 107 |
| 3 | Surfside Moon | 90 | 110 | 97 | 115 |
| 4 | Hill Road | 89 | 110 | 101 | 110 |
| 5 | McAfee | 89 | 109 | 96 | 117 |
| 6 | Uncaged | 84 | 101 | 92 | 107 |
| 7 | First Pitch | 60 | 96 | 77 | 78 |
| 8 | Captain Cook | 94 | 114 | 100 | 119 |
| 9 | Brereton's Baytown | 72 | 100 | 88 | 101 |
| 10 | Lordship | 74 | 92 | 80 | 102 |
*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are courtesy of Daily Racing Form.
Pace makes the race
The pace projector from TimeformUS shows an average early time for the distance with Captain Cook having the advantage. Vassimo also could have some early foot. Uncaged and First Pitch have wins on the pace, although they may be outclassed in this stakes field.
It doesn't seem to be favorable a pace setup for Hill Road, but he should appreciate the extra ground to catch a leisurely Captain Cook in the final yards. Brown's Lordship is coming in off a maiden win and a proven mid-pack position and could get the jump on his stablemate.
HRN handicappers
Matt Shifman has horse-by-horse analysis and tips for playing the Peter Pan.
Shifman and Brian Zipse have Peter Pan discussion as well as a Preakness preview in this week's HorseCenter.
Speaking of the Preakness, Ron Flatter has sports-radio icon Mike Francesca on this week's podcast to talk about trainer Bill Mott's decision to hold Derby winner Sovereignty out of the Preakness. Top workout analyst Bruno DeJulio has had his morning eyes on the Derby and on Preakness contenders. HRN's Mike Shutty recaps the Super Screener's successful Derby wagering and has tips for how to play the Preakness. Listen here.