Midland: How I hit the $87,000 Saratoga Pick 6
Friday, on a day where Saratoga had a $132,000 Pick 6 carryover and another $996,000 was bet into the pool, I was lucky to have one of the 8 winning tickets worth over $87,000. Well, actually I had 50% of the ticket which I put together to split with a friend.
The final combination of tickets we played was $1,200. I was lucky that my friend won a bunch of money on Thursday and kept bugging me to put together a ticket. For the structure of the ticket, we used an A/B style ticketmaker setup, but that is something we can cover another time.
Our selections came in with five "A" horses and one "B" horse, and here was the winning ticket.
On going after these tough Pick 5 and Pick 6 tickets, one other recommendation I would make is to split them with friends and play for a little more than you would by yourself. They are incredibly difficult to hit in the first place, but even more difficult with small tickets. This was a tough sequence plus a carryover, so we played a larger ticket than we normally would. And separately, we may have both played and missed.
Handicapping Tools
As most everyone is familiar with handicapping with speed figures, I wanted to share with HRN readers some of the data and other factors that helped along the way.
After years of research and collaboration with other handicappers, we developed a series of new products tackling some of the most frustrating handicapping challenges. I've been using these successfully for over a year, and we were excited to finally offer them to everyone this summer.
At the start of Saratoga and Del Mar, Horse Racing Nation launched HRN Pro reports, which cover Pace, Post Position Bias, Shippers, Jockeys and First-timers. These have helped me countless times along the way, including several ways preparing for Friday's Pick 6.
All five reports are available daily, both individually and as part of a low-cost monthly HRN Pro Membership package. I would encourage everyone to give them a look and see if they can help your handicapping.
Also, if you want to familiarize yourself with Saratoga track trends, here is an article we published earlier this week.
The Pace Report - a starting point to looking at Friday's races
The Pace report is a great tool because it helps to provide a starting point for looking at each race.
On paper, races 7 and 9 had the most pace, as they received scores of 84 and 76, with an orange color-code for a hot pace. These are races I would potentially look to play against the speed.
Races 5 and 6 were maiden races with very few starters, but it was worth noting there wasn't significant speed signed on. Race 10 had very little speed, so the focus would be on horses near the front, which is how the Saratoga main track has been playing as of late.
And race 9 was a bit of a tweener. The score of 49 could go either way.
(Pace report - Saratoga Friday)
Race 5 - 2yo fillies sprinting on the turf
At first look this was a very deep field of 10, with contenders from the Cox, Clement, Brown and Asmussen barns, as well as the 1 which had great works and ended up as the 5-2 favorite for trainer Brian Lynch.
But as we know, jockey Luis Saez is dominating at Saratoga. Our jockey report confirmed that not only is he winning at a great clip, but he was still winning on prices. Our Jockey report showed that he was outperforming his odds by 36% (HRN Impact score). Based on his odds, he should be riding 14% winners, but instead he's riding 19% winners.
With Saez up, the 8 Lady Danae (11-1) was a must include here. (It turned out that Saez would ride the winners of both 2yo races.)
The other thing that was very appealing about the 8 was that she had great workouts before she came to Saratoga. While those were very quick workouts at Keeneland, note how they slowed down at Saratoga. This wasn't a sign the filly didn't like the track, rather trainer Joe Sharp already knew that she had plenty of speed. He was working on her conditioning with slower workouts to build her stamina. This may have turned some bettors off but it was only a futher positive sign that she was ready.
To get through the first leg, I used 1,8,9 as "A" horses and I had the 5 as a "B".
The 8, Lady Danae, swung wide and blew past the field winning by two lengthsn and paying $24.20 to kick off the sequence. A great start.
Race 6 - 2yo NY-bred fillies, 6 furlongs on the main track
Another 2yo race with a field of 10, this was intimidating too at first, but eventually looked more reasonable.
The first place to look was Saez again. He was on the 5, Sue Ellen Mishkin, and the second choice on the morning line at 4-1. Trainer Jorge Abreu does well with firsters, the works were good and the presence of Luis Saez only confirmed those factors.
Then, taking a look at the HRN First-Timer Insight Report, the 5 horse stood out from several others. New sire Mohaymen pops off the page, winning 23% of all starts (from 30 starts) and generously paying 41% more than they should (+41% HRN Impact). On the right, we can see that Mohaymen is winning 22% with first-time starters, and trainer Jorge Abreu is 24% in that scenario, with a huge impact score of +116%, meaning that his first-timers are great overlays. So the Abreu barn is great with firsters, they don't get clobbered at the windows, and this was a red-hot sire with a red-hot jockey. All systems go.
All the positive signs on the 5 really helped to limit the horses to use in this 2yo race and focus on other tougher races in the sequence. In the end, I settled on the 5,2 as "A" horses, with the 7 as a "B". The Pletcher horse was being bet strongly in the doubles, but based on the breeding it seemed like this was a filly that would do better going longer, but either way she was included a "B".
The 5 won easily, drawing off by 7 1/4 lengths, and paid $8.90. We had made it through the 2yo races with plenty of combinations alive.
Race 7 - NY-bred allowance, 1 mile on the Inner turf
With one scratch, this was a deep field of 11, and as predicted, a great deal of attention was focused on the 11, My Lips Are Sealed, which ended up going off as the 2-1 favorite. In my opinion, she was a deserving favorite after running a respectable race through sizzling fractions in her last. But the problem here, as the Pace Report pointed out, this had the potential to be one of the fastest paces of the day. If the pace got hot, she would be vulnerable so we would need to use some others and look for some pressers or closers.
One horse I thought that could benefit from the pace would be 1 Pure Bode. He was 8-1 on the morning line, and could tuck in on the rail under jockey Jose Lezcano. Lezcano is another rider who is greatly outperforming his odds on the turf, while he has been subpar on the main track. On the turf, he would have been expected to win 4 races, but instead has won 6, so he's winning 50% more races than his odds would suggest. That's a great bet.
Handicapping-wise, the 1 had also chased a blistering pace and folded to a respectable 5th in his last. But she was now second off a layoff for trainer Mark Hennig, who shows good numbers second time off the layoff. And while she was wide in her last, she figured to save ground under Lezcano. We've seen a number of inner turf winners save ground and win, and our Post Position Bias report indicated the rail was traditionally a good post at this distance.
Along with the 11 and the 1, I wanted to add a closer and was between the 6 and the 10. They came out of the same race and finished within a couple lengths of each other, but watching the replay ultimately I went with the 10 who I thought had a tougher trip and now had Saez up.
So for our ticket I went 1,10,11 all as "A"s here.
Ultimately, the pace wasn't crazy, but it was enough to soften up the 11. And Lezcano had the 1 in a dream spot waiting to pounce on the rail, and he drew off to win by two lengths and paid $16.80 to win. The $1 Pick Three of 8-5-1 paid $441 and we were cooking.
Race 8 - Turf sprint allowance
Looking at the card, this was the toughest race on the sequence. It was the best reason for playing the Pick 6 and playing a decent-sized ticket. This was also the 'tweener' race on the pace report. There were two strong pace horses in #1 Shekky Shebaz and #3 Noble Emotion. If one of them were able to clear, they could probably win. But if they both went at each other, it would set up for a presser or closer, but which one?
There were two scratches, and the 8 was a hopeless long shot, so there were six players in here that ended up going off between 8-5 and 14-1.
What was so attractive was that the favorite, #1 Shekky Shebaz was a very fast horse that was consistently stopping at the end. He has only won one of his last 10 starts, while finishing in the money in seven of those ten. But right nearby was #3 Noble Emotion, a very tough frontrunner that powered to turf sprint wins in both starts this year, one at Belmont and one at Saratoga. Ultimately, I was convinced that Noble Emotion would do Shekky Shebaz in, but I was too chicken to leave them both off so I used the 1 as a B horse.
As for the others, I liked them all. The 2 and 9 were coming off tough trips losing to Shekky Shebaz and I was hoping they would rebound. The #6 Joker on Jack was a Wesley Ward-trained sprinter with lots of potential, but one that really caught my eye was the #5 Matta, who at first looked to be a cut below the rest, which is why he went off at 14-1.
However, he was second off a layoff, and each of the two previous times he was second off a layoff, his speed figures jumped quite a bit. Also note on the Brisnet PPs below, his trainer Michael Trombetta is winning at 18% off the 46-90 day layoff. Plus, he liked to sit third, which would be right behind the dueling 1 and 3.
Also consulting the HRN Shipper Stats Report, I could see that Pimlico shippers were slightly negative versus expectation, but still winning at 12% and certainly a good enough to use the 5, who had several other plusses.
I settled on the 2 and 9 as "A"s and 1,5,6 as "B"s, but I was sort of just going five deep with contenders in this leg, and took a chance leaving out the 3.
And it was close at the end, but the 5 ran past the 1 and 3 at the end to win and pay $31.40. All of a sudden, this Pick 6 had potential to go into the stratosphere.
Race 9 - $120,000 stakes, 6 furlong sprint
Describing this race, I thought NYRA analyst Andy Serling put it well - this was a race with three speed horse and three shippers. And the Pace report showed this race had good potential for a hot pace.
Because of that I took what I thought was the best speed horse, #5 Wondrwherecraigis, who was another Pimlico shipper and ridden by Luis Saez, and then two closers that I thought were sitting on good races, the 1 and the 3.
Fortunately, Saez was able to wrestle the 5 away from the other speed and drew off to a 2 3/4 length victory over #1 My Boy Tate in second. The #5 paid $8.00 to win and we were now ready to look at the Pick 6 will-pays, which were eye-popping to say the least.
Race 10 - $16,000 claiming, 7 furlongs
This was not an inspiring bunch and it seemed like there were a couple of no-chance long shots in the 2 and the 8. But this race was all about the favorite, #9 Well Done West. His figures towered over the field and he would go off at 4-5, but he was a bit sketchy in that he was dropping from $30,000 to $16,000, seeming that trainer Danny Gargan was begging someone to claim him.
There were probably some tickets singled to the 9, but we wanted a couple other options and used the 6,9 as "A"s and 3 as a "B".
Pick 6 Will Pays
If you've been fortunate to get to the will-pay leg of some bigger Pick 4, Pick 5 or Pick 6 payoffs, the anticipation is certainly a lot of fun and part of what makes this such a great game. But there is disappointment too, and sometimes you'll hedge some of the other horses you don't have, but as most of us know, that doesn't always work out well either.
In this case, we were alive to the 3, 6 and 9, and some huge payoffs. But much to our surprise, the Pick 6 was not going to be hit if the 2,4,5 or 8 won, and we would be holding three consolation tickets worth $17K to $21K. So it was a great feeling to be covered to seven of eight possible outcomes. We did end up making some win and exacta bets on the #4 to hedge a bit, plus we would have gotten three 5/6 consolations.
Finish and payoff
Luckily for us, the #9 pulled away in the stretch and held off #4 by 1 1/4 lengths to capture the Pick 6 and the $87,355 payout, plus sixteen 5/6 consolations which were worth $384 each, for another $6,144.
After takeout, and money set aside for 5/6 payouts, there was $698,841 earmarked for 6/6 tickets and ours was one of only eight correct tickets.
For more information on the HRN Pro Reports mentioned above:
All five reports are available daily, both individually and as part of a low-cost monthly HRN Pro Membership package.
For more information on the HRN Pro Reports:
Packaged together as HRN Pro Reports, the daily reports tackle five of the most difficult handicapping challenges that face players every day:
- First-timer insight report - Help identifying live 1st and 2nd-timers
- Pace report - Analytics isolating the fastest and slowest paces
- Post-position bias report - Identifying good & bad posts at every distance
- Shipper stats report - Updated stats on how shippers do coming into every track
- Jockey report - Which jockeys are good and bad bets and when?
All five reports are available daily, both individually and as part of a low-cost monthly HRN Pro Membership package.