Saratoga Derby fair odds: Trikari is a better bet in N.Y. than Va.

Regarding the pair of turf races for three-year-old males this weekend, many decisions will be made between when the races actually occur and which horses will go where.

Colonial Downs and Saratoga already decided that they will contest the Secretariat Stakes (G2) and Saratoga Derby Invitational (G1), respectively, on Sunday instead of Saturday, when they were initially drawn. Now the connections of horses who entered both races must decide their sophomore's destination.

The most interesting of those is Trikari, who figures to be one of the top choices regardless of race. If I were playing racing manager for trainer Graham Motion and owner Amerman Racing, I'd unequivocally suggest the Saratoga Derby not only because it is a Grade 1 but also because he has a better chance of winning it.

Of course, a good chance to win and a good bet are not the same thing. As a bettor, I'd rather see him in the Secretariat because I think he'd drive up the price on others in there. On the other hand, he is the horse to beat in the Saratoga Derby.

It is worth noting that with the Saratoga Derby and the Fourstardave moved to Sunday that the only multi-race wager involving the Saratoga Derby is a double with those two races. There are no other sequences with these races and previous races on the card.

I mention this because Trikari would likely have been a strong single for me in those types of bets. I'll still look at doubles into the Fourstardave, of course, and use my fair odds for that race to help find potential overlays, but I'm mostly interested in seeing which of this field makes the most sense to use in an exacta with Trikari. 

If Trikari absconds for Virginia, then I'd be looking for the longest price among Legend of Time, Deterministic or First World War to offer the most value.