Saratoga: 8 track trends you need to be aware of

As horseplayers focus on Saratoga more than any track this summer, it pays to know the different trends at every distance and surface. Also, keep in mind that Saratoga has two turf tracks, and they can play differently from one another because of their differing configurations.

Main track is playing to speed

Through the first 19 days of the Saratoga meet, a majority of the dirt sprints have been won by horses racing on or near the lead. Although horses wiring the field have won their fair share, racing within two lengths of the leader at the first quarter-mile appears to be the garden spot.

Here are post-position stats for the main track through Sunday.

There are also specific trends for each of the main track distances.

5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt

All of the 17 winners at this distance have raced within three lengths of the leader at the first point of call. Fifteen of them were within two lengths of the leader at the first point of call.

Seven winners went wire to wire, but six of those wins occurred on off tracks. The rail was definitely a positive as post position 1 accounted for 5 of 17 (29 percent) winners.

6 furlongs on the dirt

Of the 29 winners, 23 (79 percent) raced within two lengths of the leader at the first point of call, and 12 went wire to wire (41 percent).

Post position 1 accounted for 7 of 29 (24 percent) winners. Interestingly, 22 percent of the winners came from post 7, with four wins from 18 starts.

6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt

Eight of the 10 winners (80 percent) raced within two lengths of the leader at the first point of call, and three went wire to wire. Here, post position 7 won 4 of 6 races (67 percent) with at least seven entrants.

7 furlongs on the dirt

The middle distance of seven furlongs played a little more fairly but still slanted to speed, as 12 of 21 winners (57 percent) raced within two lengths of the leader at the first point of call, and four went wire to wire (19 percent). Again, post position 7 shined, winning 5 of 16 races, or 31 percent of races with at least seven entrants.

Winners coming from everywhere on the turf

Through the first 19 days of the Saratoga meet, the turf course has played evenly for the most part, with no major running style or post position dominating. Below is a summary of the most popular turf distances run so far. Races at longer distances of 1 1/8 miles and beyond are not included because of the small sample size.

These are the full post-position stats for turf races through Sunday.

Here are specific trends for each of the turf distances.

Five-furlong sprints, outer turf

Sprinting, 14 of the 26 winners (54 percent) raced within two lengths of the leader at the first point of call, and 10 of the 26 winners (38 percent) raced within three or more lengths of the leader at the first point of call. Six of the winners (23 percent) went wire-to-wire.

One mile, inner turf

Going one mile on the inner turf course, 6 of 18 winners (33 percent) raced within two lengths of the leader at the first point of call, and only three went wire to wire (17 percent).

1 1/16 miles, inner turf (12 races)

Going 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf, 4 of 12 winners (33 percent) raced within two lengths of the leader at the first point of call, but only one went wire to wire (8 percent).

1 1/16 miles, outer turf (11 races)

The outer turf played more kindly to pace as 6 of 11 winners (55 percent) raced within two lengths of the leader at the first point of call and four went wire to wire (36 percent).

First-time starter trainer to note

Tom Amoss has two wins and one second-place finish from three first-time starters so far this meet. All three of these efforts came with Tyler Gaffalione aboard.

Before this year Amoss had only two first-time starters from 2017 through 2020. Both finished out of the money.

More on post-positions biases

For more information on post position biases, check out HRN's Post Position Bias report which provides the stats and analysis for every distance at every track every day.

The Post Position Bias report is offered as part of the HRN Pro Membership package where you get daily access to five reports: Post Position Bias, First-Timer Insights, Shipper Stats, Pace Reports and Hot Jockeys.  

About the author: Joe grew up in Chicago and has worked in the IT industry for over 30 years. He has been playing the races for over 40 years, and just recently began entering handicapping tournaments. This year will be his third entry to the NHC contest.