Saratoga 2021: 7 popular angles that might be losers

From following hot trainers to finding horses that fit a pace pattern, there are several angles that are considered winners at Saratoga.

There also are angles that serious handicappers reject, including some that are liable to spark debate from longtime horseplayers.

Ahead of this week’s opening to racing’s biggest summer seasons, Horse Racing Nation surveyed handicappers and insiders for a series of preview stories about both Saratoga and Del Mar, which also opens next week.

Last week in Part 1, seven winning angles were identified. But for every winner it would seem there is an equal and opposite loser.

Part 2: Seven angles that are overrated when they are applied to Saratoga.

Star jockey takes off

Tom Law, Saratoga Special. I will hear someone say, “How come Irad Ortiz isn’t riding this one? He rode this horse last time.” There’s a lot that goes on behind the scenes with jockeys, agents and trainers. It’s more than, “Irad didn’t want to ride this horse, so I’m throwing it out.” Well, not necessarily. He might be riding a horse for trainer John Smith in an “other than” race, because he’s got the mount for John Smith on the weekend with a horse that’s really good. The trainer might have said, “Look, you can ride this horse on the weekend, but I need you to ride this other horse on Wednesday.” That might not always happen with Irad Ortiz, because he’s the top guy, and his agent (Steve Rushing) is super sharp, but you might see it with some other guys. So try not to read too much into that.

Horses for courses – or not

Andy Serling, Fox Sports/New York Racing Association TV. I think the notion that there’s a lot of horses that like Saratoga is gibberish. It has changed a lot. Back in the day, horses went to Saratoga for four weeks just like everybody else. Nowadays a lot of horses stable there from April or May all the way until October. I think you have a lot of horses that are more acclimated to Saratoga in certain ways. I don’t think it’s the same situation as the old days, when an occasional horse went up there and said, “Oh, my God. I love Saratoga, just like people,” and they ran better. Most of the time when horses run well on a certain surface, it’s because they were in the right race. They probably didn’t run any faster in their Beyer figures than they ran at other racetracks. They just were in a better spot or in an advantageous spot.

Beware of fool’s gold on rail

Reinier Macatangay, Horse Racing Nation. In recent years the rail has been dead – or at least slightly dull – more often than not on the main track at Saratoga. The dead rail led to the graveyard of heavy favorites in recent years, including Triple Crown champion American Pharoah in the 2015 Travers Stakes (G1) and more recently Shancelot in the 2019 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes (G1). It also has happened to short-priced horses in lesser races. Watch to see whether the dead rail reappears in the opening weeks of Saratoga, and play the affected horses later in the meet on a fair day or at other racetracks. This is a nice way to find value.

Morning has broken

Ed DeRosa, Brisnet. No offense to Bruno De Julio, but workout reports can be overrated. But I would also say they are the most underrated angles. Let me explain. When Racing with Bruno really likes a horse, it is pretty rare when he is the only one. This leads to horses being over-bet. You have to be willing to pass on a horse if the rest of the world is onto him too. So when is it underrated? Sometimes a certain trainer will fly under the radar, or maybe there is one superstar work in a race that is even money, and another really good work that is 10-1. Bet the 10-1.

Class in past, no lock now

Jeff Siegel, XBTV. Layoff runners had better be fit. No matter how a strong a so-called “class” edge a horse might appear to have, he is likely to be an underlay. Demand a series of workouts that ensures readiness, a past history of firing fresh or a trainer with a strong record of winning with comebackers – and preferably all three. This axiom is truer for dirt races than it is for turf.

Distance of a different ground

Law. Horses coming out of “route races” – 1 1/16 miles or even a mile – that are having to stretch to 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga may have had really good form in races at Belmont. But that 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga is a real grueling race for some horses having to go all the way around two turns where they only had to go around the one turn at Belmont. You might see horses that have high numbers, but if they are untested at two turns, that’s a complete throw-out for me.

Just can’t hit the board

Mike Shutty, HRN Super Screener. You don’t see this very often, but coming out of last year's Saratoga meet, trainer Randi Persaud had entered 35 runners, and not a single one of his horses hit the trifecta. Even if his charges look good on paper and are among the favorites, you might want to think twice about backing his starters this summer at Saratoga.