Santa Anita: Which riders offer the best value this fall?
With Santa Anita's fall meet opening this week, bettors should examine the jockey colony's top performers from the concluded spring meet to identify patterns and potential value.
Juan Hernandez topped the win column with 15 victories from 49 starts. His 30.6% win rate and 12.6% HRN impact demonstrate consistent ability to outperform market expectations.
Antonio Fresu followed closely with 11 wins while managing a 19% strike rate. His HRN impact lagged at -11.3%, suggesting underperformance relative to betting lines.
Umberto Rispoli rounds out the top three with 10 wins and an impressive 43.5% win rate. His HRN impact of 57.6% shows significant outperformance of market projections, establishing him as one of the meet's most effective riders.
Hector Berrios claimed nine victories with a 17.9% HRN impact. Among riders with limited opportunities, Tyler Baze delivered seven wins and a substantial 130.5% HRN impact, indicating exceptional value for bettors.
| Jockey | Starts | Wins | Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Hernandez | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 12.6% |
| Antonio Fresu | 58 | 11 | 19.0% | -11.3% |
| Umberto Rispoli | 23 | 10 | 43.5% | 57.6% |
| Hector Berrios | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 17.9% |
| Armando Ayuso | 50 | 8 | 16.0% | 15.6% |
| Kazushi Kimura | 56 | 8 | 14.3% | 2.1% |
| Tyler Baze | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 130.5% |
| Kyle Frey | 50 | 5 | 10.0% | -21.4% |
| Edwin Maldonado | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 67.6% |
| Welfin Orantes | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | -2.6% |
Juan Hernandez dominates main track competition
Juan Hernandez led the dirt standings with eight victories, compiling an impressive 47.1% win rate and a positive 19.4% HRN impact. His main-track performance formed the foundation of his overall spring meet success.
Umberto Rispoli proved equally effective on dirt, achieving an HRN impact of 126.9% that demonstrates vast outperformance of betting odds despite limited opportunities.
Tyler Baze matched Rispoli's dirt total with four victories, although his HRN impact of 84.9% far exceeded market projections. Edwin Maldonado maximized limited chances with two wins from seven dirt starts and a 33.5% HRN impact.
| Jockey | Dirt starts |
Dirt wins |
Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Hernandez | 17 | 8 | 47.1% | 19.4% |
| Umberto Rispoli | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 126.9% |
| Tyler Baze | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 84.9% |
| Armando Ayuso | 17 | 3 | 17.6% | 3.1% |
| Kyle Frey | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | -23.3% |
| Antonio Fresu | 21 | 2 | 9.5% | -57.0% |
| Edwin Maldonado | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 33.5% |
| Hector Berrios | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | -8.6% |
| Diego Herrera | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | -3.9% |
| Kazushi Kimura | 24 | 2 | 8.3% | -42.3% |
| Ricardo Gonzalez | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | -36.0% |
| Geovanni Franco | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | -30.8% |
| Serafin Carmona | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | -38.3% |
| Efrain Hernandez | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 60.4% |
| Alfredo Bautista | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 41.6% |
| Jose Valdivia | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 102.5% |
| Abel Lezcano | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 45.7% |
| Assael Espinoza | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | -15.7% |
| Tiago Pereira | 23 | 1 | 4.3% | -68.1% |
| Welfin Orantes | 19 | 0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
Fresu leads turf riders
Antonio Fresu emerged as the leading turf rider with nine victories, compiling a 24.3% win rate and a positive 16.1% HRN impact. His grass performance served as the strength of his overall statistics.
Juan Hernandez demonstrated versatility with seven turf victories and maintained a 21.9% win rate. His 5.6% HRN impact reflects consistent form across both surfaces at Santa Anita.
Umberto Rispoli proved highly effective on turf, capturing six victories and a strong 30.9% HRN impact. Kazushi Kimura matched that total with six turf victories and an 11.6% HRN impact.
Several other riders delivered notable value despite fewer opportunities. Tyler Baze recorded three victories with a 20% strike rate and an exceptional 243.4% HRN impact, indicating substantial profits for backers. Mike Smith maximized limited chances with two victories and a remarkable 131.4% HRN impact.
The complete ranking are listed below.
| Jockey | Turf starts |
Turf wins |
Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Fresu | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 16.1% |
| Juan Hernandez | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 5.6% |
| Umberto Rispoli | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 30.9% |
| Kazushi Kimura | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 11.6% |
| Armando Ayuso | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 24.6% |
| Hector Berrios | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | -8.6% |
| Tyler Baze | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 243.4% |
| Mike Smith | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 131.4% |
| Kyle Frey | 24 | 2 | 8.3% | -18.3% |
| Edwin Maldonado | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 125.1% |
| Ricardo Gonzalez | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 6.9% |
| Jose Valdivia | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 299.8% |
| Tiago Pereira | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | -37.0% |
| Welfin Orantes | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| William Antongeorgi | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| Kent Desormeaux | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| Drayden Van Dyke | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| Diego Herrera | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| Abel Lezcano | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| Assael Espinoza | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |