Santa Anita Derby fair odds: Trying to beat the Bafferts

When it comes to whether to bet Bob Baffert on the Kentucky Derby trail, there are really only two paths: Either you love one of his charges and you single him, or you don't and you try to beat him completely.

Merely liking a Baffert runner is rarely enough to warrant a bet because he gets bet so heavily. So it goes in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on Saturday at Santa Anita, where Baffert will saddle Cherokee Nation and Potente, the top two choices on the morning line.

Obviously, either is capable of winning. Cherokee Nation earned a 4 Ragozin Figure when finally breaking his maiden. That is one of the fastest figures of any 3-year-old this year. Given it took six tries to win, though, it is fair to wonder whether he can replicate that number stepping up in class on a five-week rest.

Potente upset his stablemate Brant when winning the San Felipe Stakes (G2). He is undefeated in two career starts and has a more balanced trajectory into this. Still, neither of his performances warrant taking too short a price against this group. 

Intrepido interests me most, though the 1 1/8 miles is a legit question for the son of Maximus Mischief. But he should get a decent trip under Hector Berrios, who likely was a little closer to the pace than he prefers in the one-mile Robert B. Lewis (G3) two months ago. 

So Happy is worth monitoring from the standpoint that his 7-2 morning line is a little light, but that was a fast pace he set in the San Felipe. Although that is certainly possible to happen again, I can't completely dismiss his chances if Mike Smith finds himself on the lead.