Santa Anita Derby fair odds: Find value + a Ky. Derby favorite
There is no doubt in my mind that the best Kentucky Derby prep performance we've seen to date was Journalism defeating Barnes in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes.
Not only is that pair facing a rematch in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on Saturday at Santa Anita, but Barnes's trainer, Bob Baffert, also is throwing his champion Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull into the mix.
The John Shirreffs-trained duo of Baeza and Westworld round out the small but mighty field. The Kentucky Derby favorite is certain to come out of this race if Barnes, Citizen Bull or Journalism win this.
But betting the Kentucky Derby will be a focus for the next four weeks after this weekend. For now, there is a potential wagering opportunity in the Santa Anita Derby, as there is some chance the Baffert pair attracts enough money to make Journalism worth a play. The Horse Racing Nation morning line versus my fair odds suggests I might get my price. And from a multi-race standpoint, I'd be fine singling Journalism assuming some contrary opinions elsewhere in the sequence.
Again, his San Felipe was just too good to dismiss, and it does not appear to be an aberration based on the solid Los Al Futurity (G2) win to close out his 2-year-old season. If more people agree with me than I'd like and Journalism is odds-on, then I'd be willing to place an action wager to win on the overlays against my fair odds, but I'm most excited about Journalism at even money or better.
One last note about the Kentucky Derby coming out of this race. Citizen Bull really has not developed from 2 to 3 years old. Now, that is most likely because we have only one start to go off. If he were to lose this race but with a nice step forward performance-wise compared with the Juvenile and Lewis Stakes, then he might offer some value come May 3 at Churchill Downs.
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