Santa Anita Derby: Favorite looks strictly the one to beat
Playing against the favorite in the Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on Saturday is a tough task. Medina Spirit not only brings versatility as either a pacesetter, presser or stalker, but he also owns the right speed figures to win.
Sometimes it is okay to bet the favorite, as long as his form justifies the odds. Off the probables list, here is an analysis of each horse likely to enter.
1. Medina Spirit, 9/5 (Protonico – Bob Baffert/TBA – 4: 2-2-0 - $165,200): Without Life Is Good’s presence in the Sham Stakes (G3) or San Felipe Stakes (G2), Medina Spirit would head into this race undefeated in four starts. Now that Life Is Good is on the shelf, it is difficult to make a case against Medina Spirit. He won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) by setting a fast pace and fighting gamely to hold off Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie. The latter went on to capture the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds.
Medina Spirit does not need the lead though. The absence of Life Is Good makes it easier for him to convert a stalking trip into a win. In the San Felipe Stakes (G2), even though Life Is Good ran away with the race, Medina Spirit still beat Dream Shake by 2 ¼ lengths for second. The post draw is tomorrow, but it likely does not affect this versatile runner. Right now, he looks like a worthy single. The pick.
2. Dream Shake, 3-1 (Twirling Candy – Peter Eurton/TBA – 2: 1-0-1 - $72,600): The son of Twirling Candy gave a decent effort in the San Felipe. After moving into second, he became a little tired in the stretch though and let Medina Spirit reclaim the runner-up position late. Regardless, in only his second career start, Dream Shake ran third in a Grade 2 race on the Derby trail.
On the negative side, he needs to face Medina Spirit again and find an answer for those 2 ¼ lengths he gave up. That is not a huge margin to overcome in dirt racing, but another problem is his inexperience. Dream Shake remains a horse with only two career starts, while Medina Spirit is a seasoned veteran in comparison with four races under his belt. As hard as it is to leave him off the top, Dream Shake is better off used in second or third once again. Use underneath.
3. Defunded, 10-1 (Dialed In – Bob Baffert/TBA – 2: 1-0-1 - $52,200) With only two maiden sprint tries on his record, at first glance, it is difficult to see why Baffert wants to make a big leap into a Grade 1 route with this Dialed In gelding. Yes, Defunded did show a nice turn of foot to break his maiden in the local March 6 effort. However, stretching out from six furlongs to nine furlongs for the first time is asking a lot of any horse, let alone one jumping this high in class.
Furthermore, Baffert’s name is inclined to make his value unfair off the maiden sprint win. On the plus side, he did overcome some minor traffic at the top of the stretch in his maiden win. From there, Joel Rosario made use of his hands only to urge Defunded home. He clearly owns ability and might develop into a nice runner for Baffert. On talent alone, he might find a way to hit the board, but a win is unlikely. Use underneath.
4. Roman Centurian, 10-1 (Empire Maker – Simon Callaghan/TBA – 4: 1-1-0 - $78,020): After taking advantage of a hot pace to run a close second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), Roman Centurian could only finish a distant fourth in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), losing by 13 ½ lengths. Take Life Is Good out of the equation though, and Roman Centurian only lost to Medina Spirit in second by 5 ½ lengths in the San Felipe. Still, 5 ½ lengths is a regression from the neck loss to Medina Spirit in the Robert B. Lewis. He needs another fast pace to help set up his late run. Medina Spirit is an obvious speed horse, but it is unclear if he will receive significant pressure as it is clear from the Robert B. Lewis results that Medina Spirit can withstand the other speed and still win. Regardless, throw Roman Centurian into the bottom slots of vertical wagers and see what happens. He figures to pass tired horses late without threatening. Use underneath.
5. The Great One, 8-1 (Nyquist – Doug O’Neill/TBA – 6: 1-1-0 - $89,940): The Great One ran a disappointing fifth in the San Felipe. In fairness, Medina Spirit came out on the first turn and discouraged him from engaging with Life Is Good. By the second turn, The Great One had become tired and begun to fade from contention. At the end, he was 16 ¾ lengths behind the runaway winner Life Is Good and 8 ¾ lengths behind the runner-up Medina Spirit.
Before the San Felipe effort, The Great One won his local Jan. 23 maiden race by 14 lengths with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He also came close to upsetting the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) at 33-1, only losing by a nose after Spielberg dug in late to win. There is talent in this runner and he might improve off the San Felipe effort with a good break and clean first turn. Right now though, Medina Spirit appears a step ahead. Use underneath.
6. Rock Your World, 6-1 (Candy Ride – John Sadler/TBA – 2: 2-0-0 - $96,600): The two-time turf winner has a sizable amount of support, despite his lack of dirt attempts. Under a perfect trip and ride, he won the local one-mile Pasadena Stakes by 2 ¼ lengths, which is a decent margin in terms of grass racing. However, this is a nine-furlong Grade 1 dirt race and his dirt workouts shown on XBTV are awful. On March 28, Rock Your World needs visible urging to pass a three-time maiden loser in Waraire. Even after passing Waraire, it seems like a chore for Rock Your World to separate himself. Six days before that, the whip briefly comes out on Rock Your World at the top of the stretch to pass the optional claimer Heywoods Beach, before even more vigorous hand urging and shaking of the reigns towards the wire. In contrast, the jockey on Heywoods Beach does not even move. Off those two workouts, it is hard to endorse this turf runner for even a minor share this week. Toss.
7. Parnelli, 20-1 (Quality Road – John Shirreffs/TBA – 6: 1-3-1 - $81,600): At one point, this was potentially a nice runner for Shirreffs on the Derby trail. After a 13 ¾-length loss in the Sham Stakes (G3) and 19 ¼-length loss in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), however, it is hard to endorse him for any spot. To his credit, Parnelli made use of his speed in the Robert B. Lewis to stalk Medina Spirit in close range. Medina Spirit kept fighting for the win though, while Parnelli folded on the turn. Now Parnelli faces the same opponent again. Blinkers are unlikely to help him either. Toss.
8. Law Professor, 15-1 (Constitution – Michael McCarthy/TBA – 2: 1-0-0 - $37,100): Law Professor broke his maiden locally in a one-mile race on March 5. He won by 2 ½ lengths. The third-place horse, There Goes Harvard, went on to finish second to the hyped Bezos in his next start on March 26. Likewise, the sixth-place Fenway ran third in the same race Bezos broke his maiden in.
As a stalker, Law Professor can sit behind the leaders in a good position early and hope the front horses melt. But the jump from a maiden race to a Grade 1 is never a simple task for any horse. Medina Spirit does not melt easily either, as shown in the Robert B. Lewis. Law Professor is probably too inexperienced to win, but a Top 4 finish is possible for this promising son of Constitution. Use underneath.
9. Ottothelegend, 30-1 (Uncle Mo – Steven Asmussen/TBA – 2: 1-0-0 - $54,600): Well, at least the pedigree stands out. This is a half-brother to Twirling Candy and Dubai Sky. If anyone does not remember the latter, he won the Spiral Stakes (G3) just a few years ago. With those names in his family, it is no surprise Ottothelegend took a step forward in his second start while stretching out to a two-turn route. He only won by two lengths though with a 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure. To win the Santa Anita Derby, Ottothelegend likely needs to hit the 120 range on TimeformUS. This is a promising colt that needs more time to develop before tackling a Grade 1. Toss.
10. Back Ring Luck, 50-1 (Malibu Moon – Al Cates/TBA – 5: 2-1-1 - $81,271): To his credit, he dug in gamely to take an optional claiming race at Oaklawn on March 5. The runner-up Cousin Larry did not fare well in his next start though, finishing a disappointing sixth at 9/2 odds in a March 25 optional claimer at Oaklawn.
Back Ring Luck also needs to improve at least 15-20 points off his 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure in order to prove competitive here. This is a tall order for a gelding who broke his maiden while carrying a $30k tag last November at Churchill Downs. Toss.
Conclusion:
Medina Spirit is a worthy single.
For value in the second slot, The Great One or Law Professor may be the best options.