Santa Anita Derby: Top-heavy 4 lead DeRosa’s fair odds

When it comes to entrants, the Santa Anita Derby is Saturday’s shortest Kentucky Derby prep field, but when it comes to contenders, the Grade 1 race at Santa Anita is likely deepest.

"Only" nine entered the 1 1/8-mile race at the Great Race Place, but four of those feature prominently among many people’s top 10 and 20 lists, including both mine and the Paddock Prince’s (see video below).

Click here for Santa Anita entries and results.

No. 5 Practical Move could end up the second choice in Kentucky Derby 2023 with a win here, depending on what Tapit Trice does in the Blue Grass. I figure both as the most likely winners of their races, but with the Santa Anita Derby being more competitive, Practical Move is not as likely.

Horses like No. 3 Geaux Rocket Ride, No. 6 National Treasure and No. 7 Skinner make it so. Together that quartet has an 88 percent chance of winning this race based on my fair odds, but all of them do have questions, so sticking to these prices is a must.

Practical Move has distance questions to me, if not in this spot then in four weeks going a furlong farther. Geaux Rocket Ride needs to be able to lead them all the way. National Treasure is coming off a layoff after missing the San Felipe (G2) against the other three, and Skinner has the opposite issue as Geaux Rocket Ride. He needs pace.

Still, it is very likely one of those will win, and 1-5 would be value to bet on that happening. The wild card in the betting and in the race is No. 8 Mandarin Hero from Japan. I made him 40-1, because I do not really trust these kinds of shippers. Yes, Japan has done this all over the world, but I cannot fathom saying this is the deepest, most talented prep race of the year on one hand and then giving this horse any sort of chance on the other.