Santa Anita Derby 2019: Odds and analysis

Big names, a small field and Southern California’s “dark cloud” — trainer Bob Baffert’s words, not mine — spell the story of Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby.

The major 2019 Kentucky Derby prep is led by Game Winner, the Baffert trainee making his second start of the season with 45 qualifying points to his name. The situation is a bit more desperate for his rivals, each of whom need a victory or runner-up finish to move on to Churchill Downs with points paying out on a 100-40-20-10 scale to the Top 4.

The card will run within the bigger picture of Santa Anita’s recent issues regarding track safety. Let’s hope for safe trips ahead of Race 8 on the card, set for approximately 6:30 p.m. ET. Here’s a look at the field alongside Santa Anita odds maker Jon White's morning line:

1. Roadster, 5-2 (Quality Road — Bob Baffert/Mike Smith — 3: 2-0-1 — $106,200): Baffert raved about Roadster’s comeback allowance win, a two-turn debut victory over a rival here in Nolo Contesto. Going back to last summer, he was the barn’s big horse, and who knows? He still could prove to be at the right time of year. In his Del Mar Futurity (G1) defeat, Roadster ran third by two lengths to Game Winner with a breathing issue serious enough to require throat surgery and time off. Given he has to win or place to move on here, he should be ready to run. The top choice.

2. More Ice, 30-1 (More Than Ready — Jerry Hollendorfer/Geovanni Franco — 7: 2-0-3 — $96,033): This colt, an unexpected entry, looks like a potential favor to the racing office, as he was also recently listed as possible to run on turf in Keeneland's Transylvania (G3). Third last time in the El Camino Real Derby, More Ice scored both his wins going a mile on the turf. He did debut sprinting on the main track and moves back to dirt here. Toss.

3. Nolo Contesto, 6-1 (Pioneerof the Nile — John Sadler/Joe Talamo — 3: 1-1-0 — $45,460): Sadler has suggested that the inside trip taken last time allowed Roadster first jump off the turn and played a part in the finishing order, with his favorite coming in the runner-up. Two back, he out-dueled eventual Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Omaha Beach going a mile when both were still running in maiden special weight company. There’s reason to believe he’s fast enough, and connections have always thought highly, but Nolo Contesto caught a tough bunch here. Live longshot.

4. Synthesis, 30-1 (First Samurai — George Papaprodromou/Rafael Bejarano — 9: 1-1-4 — $117,400) : After running for trainer Keith Desormeaux in California and Kentucky, the private purchase is back home for new connections, including the trainer Papaprodromou, who made a bold move to enter here. Appreciate the sportsmanship, but question whether Synthesis belongs. If there’s one angle to merit putting him on a ticket, it’s that he hasn’t run on a fast track since breaking his maiden Oct. 20 at Keeneland. But in hindsight, that looks like a particularly weak flight. Toss.

5. Instagrand, 3-1 (Into Mischief — Jerry Hollendorfer/Flavien Prat — 3: 2-0-1 — $180,000): It’s time to answer the distance question for a graded stakes-winning sprinter making his second start off a layoff of more than six months. In the Gotham (G3) last time, he took part in that three-way battle for the lead late before Haikal swept by the trio. Did Instagrand run close enough to the pace to earn an excuse? How much can he reasonably be expected to improve here? Is he as good as we all thought last summer? There are plenty of unknowns and another new jockey to boot. Use underneath.

6. Game Winner, 4-5 (Candy Ride — Bob Baffert/Joel Rosario — 5: 4-1-0 — $1,646,000): Other than getting away from the gate slowly in the Rebel Stakes, Game Winner didn’t have much excuse for losing. Not that there was any shame in a defeat in a photo to Omaha Beach. They left third place another 8 1/4 lengths behind. While Baffert hasn’t won every prep in which he’s sent out a horse, there aren’t any notable instances in which a one didn’t fire close to what was expected. Game Winner should at least run back to his last race, and that may be good enough. Win contender.

Summary: This looks like a race to watch, not necessarily bet. But for those playing any of the multi-race sequences, consider singling your preferred Baffert runner to cut down on cost. And should Roadster really go off at 5-2, look at a win-place wager on the improving colt.