Santa Anita countdown: 5 more tips and angles for opening day
We're winding down the 12 tips of Santa Anita countdown today! We hope you've enjoyed these stats, facts and figures related to one of the nation’s premiere meetings. Check out the first half of the countdown here.
Tip 5: Big races
Fifteen trainers have started at least 16 graded stakes horses in December-January since the 2014-2015 meeting at Santa Anita, and unquestionably John Shirreffs has posted the best record.
He leads all those conditioners with a 28.6 percent win rate, a plus 112.1 percent Horse Racing Nation Impact, and plus 119 percent ROI. Anyone with the foresight to just bet Shirreffs' graded stakes runners in the early portion of the winter-spring the past few years would have built a nice wagering nest egg for the year ahead.
No surprise that Bob Baffert leads in wins with 17, but they came from 91 starts, a decent enough 18.7 percent win rate. But Baffert runners are routinely overbet given the negative 21.7 percent HRN Impact and negative 51.8 percent ROI. Doug O’Neill is by far the worst, though, going just 2-for-52 with a negative 63.5 percent HRN Impact and negative 80.8 percent ROI.
Tip 4: Big prices
Nothing can make your day (or meet or year) like a long-shot key. Like almost every data point in horse racing, some are better in this category than others.
Trainer Phil D’Amato is a long-shot player’s best friend winning, 9.3 percent of races at 9-1 or better in the past year. That’s the top winning percentage from the 15 trainers with at least 45 starters who were at least 9-1. That strike rate is good for a plus 71.3 percent Horse Racing Nation Impact score and a plus 20 percent flat-bet profit.
Other trainers with a positive HRN Impact are Neil Drysdale, Peter Eurton, Mark Glatt, Steve Knapp, and Doug O’Neill, and of those only O’Neill has a negative ROI (and just barely).
Both Walther Solis and Carla Gaines have yet to produce a $20 winner since last season’s opening day, and John Sadler is just 1-for-78 in the category.
Tip 3: Jockeys on favorites
Dealing with favorites is an essential part of the handicapping process. Deciding whether to use or fade the public’s choice is a decision in every race. Determining which jockeys get the job done when most of the public’s money is on the line can be the difference between singling or trying to beat a favorite.
None of the 15 jockeys who have ridden at least 200 favorites since 2014 at Santa Anita Park have a flat-bet profit when riding favorites, but Juan Hernandez is undeniably the least worst option given his 43.3 percent win rate, plus 13.9 percent Horse Racing Nation Impact score, and negative 2.6 percent ROI.
Tip 2: Post positions in one-mile dirt races
Earlier on the path to our 12 tips at Santa Anita, we discussed the Track Trends Tool. This free interface allows users to see how certain tracks play based on surface and distance. The matrix highlights potential biases in terms of running style and post position.
There’s also a companion Pro Report that gives a snapshot of how posts are playing at each track running that day. The Post Position Bias Report is one of seven reports daily to Pro Reports subscribers.
Tip 1: Super Screener
On this 12th tip for Santa Anita, we wanted to highlight our one product that all this great information helps build - Mike Shutty’s Super Screener.
Super Screener is available weekly and focuses on the top stakes at tracks across the country. No track is more in focus on Dec. 26 than opening day at The Great Race Place. Shutty will have complete analysis and wagering strategies for all six stakes at Santa Anita, plus two from Fair Grounds.
The Super Screener Club Membership includes the weekly Super Screener for stakes as well as Power Picks and Horses to Single on a daily basis. Power Picks provides full-card analysis for every track running North America while Horses to Single provides a snapshot of the most likely winners each day. Both are included in the Super Screener Club membership for just $40 a month!