Fair odds: Who can beat Bullard and Barnes in San Vicente?

On a Saturday with a pair of Kentucky Derby 2025 points races, it is a seven-furlong sprint that could have the biggest implications on the Triple Crown trail.

The Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita features a pair of horses with early Derby buzz in debut winner Barnes and undefeated Grade 3 winner Bullard.

The latter is the 4-5 morning-line favorite by virtue of a pair of wins by a combined six lengths. The former will be right there with him in the betting off a game debut win over stakes-placed Innovator with 10 1/2 lengths back to third.

Both Barnes and Bullard are legitimate Derby contenders this far out, and good performances here likely would have them among the top choices in the next future wager, but they will be too short here price-wise.

Like Bullard, Romanesque is a Bob Baffert-trained debut winner. He sat off a slow pace before drawing off to win by 2 1/4 lengths with another 9 1/2 lengths back to third. He's capable of running this group off its feet on the turn.

Smooth Cruisein overcame a slow start to win on debut at a big number. He will be a similar long shot here and is worth a look. The style he showed on debut could give him first jump on Bullard when it comes time to run down the Bafferts.

There is a chance Barnes goes favored, which puts my fair odds of 3-2 on Bullard in play. I'm less inclined to play multi-race wagers involving this race and waiting for the board to dictate strategy. If Bullard is favored, then Romanesque and Smooth Cruisein are worth putting on top in exotics.