Kentucky Derby prep: San Felipe Stakes odds and analysis

The Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe Stakes, which will be run Saturday, is the fourth of five points preps at Santa Anita Park on the road to Kentucky Derby 2023. The 1 1/16-mile race drew 11 3-year-olds who will compete for the 50-20-15-10-5 points that go to the top five finishers that are eligible.

In the first three Kentucky Derby prep races at Santa Anita, only three qualifying points were earned by top five finishers because all but two of the horses were ineligible to earn points. That will change in the San Felipe because four horses who previously were trained by Bob Baffert were transferred to the barn of Tim Yakteen and now are eligible to run in the Derby.

Here is a full-field analysis for the San Felipe, which is scheduled as race 6 of 12 with post time set for 5:30 p.m. EST. Each horse is shown with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff, his sire, trainer, jockey, record and purse earnings.

1. Chase the Chaos (15-1, Astern, Ed Moger Jr., Armando Ayuso, 6: 3-2-1, $123,000) Chase the Chaos won the El Camino Real at Golden Gate Fields three weeks ago in his first start of the year, closing from 10 lengths behind and earning 10 Derby qualifying points. His last four starts were on the artificial surface at Golden Gate and include an allowance win and a pair of top-three finishes in listed stakes. Chase the Chaos began his career at Canterbury Downs with a second-place finish on the dirt in a race that was rained off the grass. He broke his maiden in his next start on turf at the same track. He will return to the dirt in the San Felipe as he ships to Santa Anita. Live long shot.

2. National Treasure (9-2, Quality Road, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, 4: 1-1-2, $300,000) National Treasure is the first of four horses in this field that just moved from the Baffert barn. National Treasure won his debut at Del Mar in September with a front-end effort at 7-2 odds. He then moved to graded-stakes racing with a second in the American Pharoah (G1), third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and another third in the Sham (G3) in his first start of 2023 as the odds-on favorite. Use underneath.

3. Practical Move (6-1, Practical Joke, Tim Yakteen, Ramon Vasquez, 5: 2-1-2, $194,200). Practical Move is another runner for Tim Yakteen, but he was in his barn for all five of his races. The son of Practical Joke finished behind Baffert horses in his first three starts. In his third race he was moved to first after getting impeded by Fort Bragg. After running third in the Bob Hope, he came back to upset the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in December, beating three Baffert runners by more than three lengths. The San Felipe will be his first start of the year. Top choice.

4. Bluegrass Go Go (30-1, Sharp Azteca, Doug O’Neill, Edwin Maldonado, 3: M-1-0, $9,400) Bluegrass Go Go is still a maiden after three starts. He was uncompetitive in his debut on the turf at Del Mar and then a maiden special weight at Santa Anita. In his first start of the year in a restricted optional maiden claimer, Bluegrass Go Go set the pace and finished second going seven furlongs. Toss.

5. Genius Jimmy (15-1, Jimmy Creed, Michael McCarthy, Kazushi Kimura, 4: 1-0-0, $45,940) Genius Jimmy made his debut at Santa Anita in October and finished fifth. He moved to the grass and broke his maiden in his third try with a front-running trip at Santa Anita last month with blinkers on and Lasix added. Toss.

6. Crypto Ride (30-1, Clubhouse Ride, Craig Lewis, Umberto Rispoli, 6: 1-1-2, $59,260) Crypto Ride is a California-bred who made his first five starts against state-breds. He broke his maiden for a $50,000 tag at Los Alamitos in December and then moved to a pair of stakes, where he finished second and fourth. Three weeks ago, he tried open company for the first time in a starter optional claimer and ran third in a sprint. Toss.

7. Hejazi (7-2, Bernardini, Tim Yakteen, Mike Smith, 4: 1-2-1, $108,200) Hejazi is the second Baffert-to-Yakteen runner in the field. The $3.5 million purchase needed four starts to break his maiden, which he did on the lead in January in a Santa Anita sprint with Lasix for the first time. Hejazi began his career at Del Mar with a pair of seconds in maiden races and then tried the American Pharoah, where he ran third behind two of his stablemates. Win contender.

8. Geaux Rocket Ride (4-1, Candy Ride, Richard Mandella, Flavien Prat, 1: 1-0-0, $40,200) Geaux Rocket Ride broke his maiden at Santa Anita by almost six lengths at the end of January in a six-furlong sprint leading every step of the way. Moving on to the Derby trail in his second start while stretching out to 1 1/16 miles is a difficult task. Trainer Richard Mandella would not make this move unless he thought his horse had a reasonable chance for success. Then, there is the handicapping rule that you should not bet on a horse who is making changes for the first time. Recent maiden winner.

9. Fort Bragg (10-1, Tapit, Tim Yakteen, Juan Hernandez, 4: 1-1-2, $82,400) Fort Bragg is the third horse in the field who was temporarily moved to the Yakteen barn. The son of Tapit finished first in two maiden races, but he was disqualified from one of them after finishing ahead of Practical Move. He did win the next start with a front-end effort as an odds-on favorite again. He ended his 2-year-old campaign in the Los Alamitos Futurity, where he had to check early in the race and could finish only third in that five-horse field. He will make his first start of 2023 in the San Felipe. Use underneath.

10. Skinner (8-1, Curlin, John Shirreffs, Victor Espinoza, 4: 1-0-1, $78,300) Skinner took an unusual path to his maiden victory, which came in his fourth start just last month with a late rally getting first-time Lasix. He debuted in July at Del Mar and finished fifth, but trainer John Shirreffs put him in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and he finished third. Then in the American Pharoah he was a distant sixth. Use underneath.

11. Mr Fisk (6-1, Arrogate, Tim Yakteen, Frankie Dettori, 3: 1-1-0, $54,700) Mr Fisk is the fourth of the ex-Baffert, now Yakteen horses in the San Felipe. He got his maiden victory in his third start in January going a mile at Santa Anita while racing from off the pace and getting Lasix for the first time. Toss.

Summary: Tim Yakteen has five of the 11 horses in the San Felipe, four who came from the Baffert barn and one that he had for his entire career. With 45 percent of the field, chances are that Yakteen will be in the winner’s circle after race six is complete.

National Treasure, Practical Move, Hejazi, Geaux Rocket Ride and Skinner have the highest speed figures, which put them above the rest of the San Felipe field.

National Treasure got his high figures running behind strong performances by Cave Rock, Forte and Reincarnate. Practical Move got his best number in his victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity and could step forward after having a few months to mature. Hejazi has an unusual series of races but ran big speed figures after running behind fast winners or when he got his first victory in his first start of the year. Geaux Rocket Ride impressed in his only race against a small field. Skinner’s pattern of races looks a lot like those of Hejazi winning his maiden after racing in the American Pharoah.

Expect Practical Move to take another step forward as he will get a fast pace to set up his late running style. That makes this Tim Yakteen runner the top choice.