San Felipe Stakes 2020: Odds and analysis
Santa Anita Park’s racing office stretched to find seven contenders for Saturday’s Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe Stakes — which regardless of its field size and betting potential is a notable stop on the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail.
No fewer than four serious Triple Crown hopefuls will line up in the eighth race, a 1 1/16-mile test allotting Derby points on a 50-20-10-5 scale to its top-four finishers. Below, check out a horse-by-horse look with projected morning line odds from Horse Racing Nation. Post time is approximately 6 p.m. ET.
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1. Fort McHenry, 25-1 (Tapit — Doug O’Neill/Abel Cedillo — 5: 1-1-1): This $1 million sibling of California Chrome was sold privately since his last start in New York and supplemented here. What a story it would be if he could upset in a race that set forth Chrome’s own run to the 2014 Kentucky Derby. Fort McHenry, gelded for his prior start, will take blinkers off, and that may help him stretch his speed. He has flashed talent, but largely disappointed, making him tough to play here. Toss.
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2. Honor A. P., 4-1 (Honor Code — John Shirreffs/Mike Smith — 2: 1-1-0): There’s every reason to believe he’ll need this race, but Shirreffs doesn’t have time to give one away if the Derby’s the goal. Honor A. P. has worked into shape with a pair of 7/8-mile breezes recently, though it’s been since that flashy second-out win on Oct. 19 that we last saw him in the afternoon. At least Honor A. P. offers two-turn experience, and his figures fit. Maybe he’s this talented. Board hitter.
3. Wrecking Crew, 12-1 (Sky Kingdom — Peter Miller/Tyler Gaffalione — 5: 1-2-1): Off slow, keen to go and then out of breath by the far turn, Wrecking Crew was a mess when last seen in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Was that a failed distance test, or simply one to draw a line through? Lucky circumstances led to a placing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. More dominos would need to fall to get this colt back on the board here. Toss.
4. Authentic, 8-5 (Into Mischief — Bob Baffert/Drayden Van Dyke — 2: 2-0-0): He’s perfect so far in record, but not running style. Showing obvious talent, Authentic ducked in, proving a handful for Van Dyke when running off to win the Sham Stakes (G3) by 7 3/4 lengths over a next out stakes winner, Azul Coast. Baffert discussed equipment changes such as earplugs to keep him focused, but there’s always some risk in betting on it to work. Win contender.
5. Thousand Words, 2-1 (Pioneerof the Nile — Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat — 3: 3-0-0): He isn’t a showoff in the mornings, and in the afternoons Thousand Words has done just enough to stay undefeated. Whether that's a sign he hasn’t been properly tested, we'll find out Saturday. Prat kept the mount on this colt rather than Storm the Court, though there’s also the bigger picture to consider. Stay on this one, and he’ll be in line to ride other Baffert stars. Board hitter.
6. Storm the Court, 6-1 (Court Vision — Peter Eurton/Joel Rosario — 5: 2-0-1): With all eyes on Nadal in the San Vicente Stakes (G2), it went a bit overlooked that the champion took a wide trip and made up ground late in the sprint. Back around two turns, Storm the Court should be more forwardly placed. Running back to the 102 Brisnet Speed Rating from his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile upset may make him a winner here, and likely at a price. The top choice.
7. Swagsational, 30-1 (Gallant Son — Heath Lawrence/Kassie Guglielmino — 10: 3-0-1): This Washington-bred opened his career 0-for-7 before reeling off three straight wins at Turf Paradise, including consecutive stakes there. What keyed the improvement? His speed figures were atrocious before the calendar turned to 2020. Maybe he’s more than a name — Keith and Jan Swagerty bred him — but even with the lightbulb on he figures to be severely overmatched. Toss.
Summary: With a short field, this looks like one in which to play a strong opinion against the favorite or simply watch for its impact on the Derby trail. If Authentic and Honor A. P. don't turn out to be freaky sort of talents, Storm the Court looks like a strong win contender having already run fast enough to beat this bunch.