San Carlos fair odds: The value play against The Chosen Vron

Elwood Blues was once where The Chosen Vron was. Accomplished but untested in the open stakes waters.

California-bred The Chosen Vron passed that test when winning the Grade 1 Bing Crosby last year at Del Mar. Now Elwood Blues will try to do the same in the San Carlos (G3) on Saturday at Santa Anita after winning three consecutive conditioned races.

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The Chosen Vron is a worthy favorite, but odds-on when giving four pounds to Elwood Blues moving up in class equals underlay to me.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Elwood Blues flashed talent in a pair of losses to start his career but has shown even more promise since returning from a layoff. More importantly, though, he figures to be the pace of this race, and The Chosen Vron will have to reel him in.

At the expected prices, I’ll bet that Elwood Blues can keep going for the connections of my favorite horse of all time Real Quiet.

Unfortunately, there is not much else to recommend in this race, so it’s just a win bet on Elwood Blues for me. At least that will get me a free drink at the National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas.