Sam F. Davis odds & analysis: Pletcher, Mott colts rate big look

On speed figures alone, Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs might not impress handicappers at first. However, there interesting colts to watch from both the Todd Pletcher and Bill Mott barns.

Among two entered for Pletcher is the battle-tested Known Agenda, while Mott's tandem includes the sharp maiden winner Candy Man Rocket. Once again, the question of experience versus talent comes into play.

The Sam F. Davis is carded as Race 11 with a post time of 5:02 p.m. EST.  

1. Hidden Stash, 12-1 (Constitution – Victoria Oliver/Hector Diaz Jr. – 4: 2-0-1 - $101,062): On the plus side, he broke his maiden at Keeneland last October and then took an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs. At least he knows how to win at top-tier racetracks. With that said, his TimeformUS Speed Figures do not appear that fast. In those two races, Hidden Stash only shows a 91 and 93. To make a note about the Churchill Downs' effort though, Hidden Stash overcame sluggish fractions of 25.05 and 49.54 to close for the win. Sometimes slow fractions make figure-making difficult, even though TimeformUS does factor in pace. As a 3-year-old, he might move forward enough to hit one of the bottom slots. Use underneath. 

2. Joe Man Joe, 15-1 (Uncle Mo – David Fisher/Huber Villa-Gomez – 6: 1-1-0 - $21,859): With a strong closing kick, he beat Ricochet to break his maiden over this track on Nov. 27, although TimeformUS only gave him a lowly 87 figure. To offset that fact, Ricochet went on to break his maiden by 8 ¼ lengths on Dec. 19. Joe Man Joe then ran a good second in a local turf optional claiming race. Those two races alone under trainer David Fisher look better than any start he had under Ian Wilkes. Forget about the low figure in his maiden win and throw him in the bottom slots for added value. Use underneath.

3. Known Agenda, 5/2 (Curlin – Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez – 3: 1-1-1 - $74,600): This son of Curlin shows interesting company lines. Before his distant third in the Remsen Stakes (G2), he beat Greatest Honour, one of the leading Derby trail runners, in a nine-furlong Aqueduct maiden race. An impressive 21 lengths separated those two horses and the third-place horse, Overtook, Known Agenda’s stablemate in the Pletcher barn. Before breaking his maiden at Aqueduct, he also ran second by 1 3/4 lengths to Highly Motivated at Belmont, who took the Nyquist Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup undercard in his next start. Even though it is strange for a Curlin colt to not handle a wet track, handicappers might forgive Known Agenda’s Remsen effort due to the slop. Based on his maiden win over Greatest Honour, he is supposed to beat this mostly uninspiring group. The pick.    

4. Millean, 10-1 (Blame – Todd Pletcher/Roberto Alvarado – 3: 1-0-1 - $23,892): While he did take a Gulfstream maiden claiming race with a 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure, a number higher relative to some of the other horses in this race, it is difficult to trust a horse coming off a win in a maiden claimer in a Derby prep race. Why did Pletcher and Donegal Racing drop him to a $50k claiming race in the first place? For those who are still interested because of the solid speed figure, he is best used in the bottom slots. Use underneath.

5. Smiley Sobotka, 6-1 (Brody’s Cause – Dale Romans/Daniel Centeno – 3: 1-2-0 - $74,700): No serious Derby trail horses were behind him in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). The third-place Arabian Prince finished a well-beaten fifth in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds in his next start, while the fourth-place Swill folded in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct after pressing the eventual winner Capo Kane. Expect this runner to prove nothing more than a pace presence. Toss.

6. Runway Magic, 30-1 (Runhappy – George Arnold, II/Julien Leparoux – 4: 1-0-2 - $64,872): Given his lack of any route starts and distant third in the Limehouse Stakes, taking this Runhappy colt seriously is difficult. He did break his maiden by 3 3/4 lengths on Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs, but only with a 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Trainers do not generally run their horses in four straight sprint races before stretching out. Most good trainers know immediately whether a horse is a router physically. Even with A.P. Indy as the damsire, this one might prove more comfortable at one turn. Toss.

7. Boca Boy, 30-1 (Prospective – Cheryl Winebaugh/Antonio Gallardo – 5: 1-3-1 - $301,400): Last year, this Florida-bred gelding broke his maiden over state breds in July and took the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes two months later at Gulfstream. Given the layoff since then and move into open graded stakes company, the task at hand seems too difficult. On the other hand, perhaps it is a sign of confidence for the connections to aim this high right off the bat. Derby fever is real though. Toss.

8. Nova Rags, 12-1 (Union Rags – William Mott/Sammy Camacho – 3: 2-0-0 - $70,650): The son of Union Rags lost the Nashua Stakes (G3) by 14 ¼ lengths to Pickin’ Time. He did come back last month to win the local Pasco Stakes with a mild 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but he beat an atrocious field for $125k. Note how the third-place Foreman had broken his maiden in a local $25k claimer before completing the trifecta in the Pasco. The runner-up Newyearsblockparty was a distant fourth by 11 ¼ lengths in the Limehouse Stakes. Nova Rags lacks the right speed and class. Toss.

9. Candy Man Rocket, 4-1 (Candy Ride – William Mott/Junior Alvarado – 2: 1-0-0 - $24,824): Well, it is hard to argue with a 9 ¼-length maiden win at Gulfstream. TimeformUS gave Candy Man Rocket a 96, which is high relative to most of the horses in this field. However, he only won at six furlongs and needs to prove himself routing. His dam line traces back to Courtly Dee, who produced the brilliant filly Althea. Althea won the 1984 Arkansas Derby (G1), as well as the 1983 Del Mar Futurity (G2) and Hollywood Juvenile Championship (G2) against males. Candy Ride is trustworthy as a route sire. He can win, but the lack of experience is a concern.  Win contender.

10. Ricochet, 12-1 (Tapiture – Kelsey Danner/Jesus Castanon – 4: 1-1-1 - $32,974): Ricochet broke his maiden locally by 8 ¼ lengths in December. He only shows a 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort though. In addition, the runner-up Last Investment and third-place Dreaming of Gerry both lost their next starts locally, although they were both second. It is possible the speed figures do not reflect Ricochet’s ability well enough. For bettors needing another horse to toss in the bottom slots of superfectas, this one might offer some value. Use underneath.

11. Lucky Law, 8-1 (No Nay Never – Patrick Biancone/Robby Albarado – 2: 1-1-0 - $32,400): With only two turf races on his record, this one is difficult to evaluate. Trainer Patrick Biancone loves to switch from turf to dirt, and had some mild success with Sole Volante last year with the angle. At least Lucky Law broke his maiden routing on turf, making the distance of this race within his reach. With some pace, perhaps he can grab a piece late. Use underneath.

12. Last Investment, 50-1 (Social Inclusion – Stacy Hendry/Ademar Santos – 4: 0-2-1 - $15,955): He is still a maiden after four starts and lost to Ricochet by 8 ¼ lengths on Dec. 19. The post position is no bargain either for this maiden. Toss.

Also Eligible

13. Tiz Tact Toe, TBA (Tourist – Robert Hess Jr./Alonso Quinonez – 4: 0-2-1 - $15,955): With only three turf starts on record and a loss at the maiden claiming level, it is hard to take him seriously right now. Toss.

Conclusion:
Known Agenda owns the right experience and class to take this soft prep race. Forget about the distant third in the Remsen and study his fast dirt efforts.

Also throw in Candy Man Rocket, in case he handles the stretchout in his first attempt. If he gets overbet though on the strength of that maiden win, then Known Agenda is a Win bet candidate since Candy Man Rocket’s route ability is unproven.