Sam F. Davis: Odds, analysis, PPs for Kentucky Derby prep
The Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes puts Tampa Bay Downs in the spotlight Saturday. The local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) offers 42 total points toward Kentucky Derby 2024 with 20 going to the winner.
Post time for the Sam F. Davis, the 10th of 11 races on the program, is estimated for 5:15 p.m. EST.
We have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Sam F. Davis as well as recent top speed figures for each contender.
You can also check out Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page, where you can download PPs for the Sam F. Davis and more, courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
Sam F. Davis best speed figures
| Post | Horse | ML | Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Principito | 50-1 | 61 | 88 | 77 |
| 2 | Tireless | 12-1 | 73 | 101 | 99 |
| 3 | Patriot Spirit | 6-1 | 75 | 99 | 90 |
| 4 | Crazy Mason | 12-1 | 75 | 92 | 86 |
| 5 | No More Time | 10-1 | 79 | 99 | 97 |
| 6 | Agate Road | 10-1 | 81 | 103 | 102 |
| 7 | Copper Tax | 7-2 | 82 | 102 | 97 |
| 8 | Everdoit | 30-1 | 68 | 91 | 88 |
| 9 | Change of Command | 3-1 | 83 | 109 | 85 |
| 10 | West Saratoga | 8-1 | 78 | 103 | 84 |
| 11 | Fulmineo | 15-1 | 76 | 100 | 97 |
| 12 | Elysian Meadows | 15-1 | 68 | 94 | 90 |
Looking at the pace
Patriot Spirit and Change of Command, with blinkers on, are projected to duke it out up front and set a fast pace with Elysian Meadows leading the next flight from the far outside post. Agate Road and Fulmineo are projected to set up shop at the back and attempt to circle the field.
Pace projector courtesy of TimeformUS.
HRN picks for the Sam F. Davis
This week’s Super Screener features analysis of the late Pick 3 at Tampa Bay Downs that is anchored by the Sam F. Davis. However, it is a 15-1 shot in the Minaret who has caught the eye of Super Screener creator Mike Shutty. He said of Flag Woman:
"Her last start was her best as she doled out those 90-plus Brisnet pace and speed ratings dueling throughout but holding on for a hard-fought runner-up finish. She needed that race and form-cycle-analysis point to a move forward second off the layoff. She projects to sit a great trip in the clear pressing two lengths off the pace in the three path, which is the place to be right now."
Be sure to take advantage of HRN’s $197 Super Screener offer that covers you all the way through to Kentucky Derby 2024. That’s 13 weeks of Super Screener analysis for one low price.
Ed DeRosa’s fair odds for the Sam F. Davis say the race is fairly wide open and that both Change of Command and Agate Road could go off at underlay prices. Copper Tax could fall through the cracks.
Matt Shifman’s Sam F. Davis picks believe Crazy Mason is a contender offering value at 10-1. Copper Tax and West Saratoga also look like must-includes.
Ashley Tamulonis & Laurie Ross went Head to Head handicapping the Sam F. Davis, and they have Change of Command and Agate Road in the trifecta. However, each landed on a different horse to win.
Shug McGaughey joined the Ron Flatter Racing Pod to discuss his Sam F. Davis entrant Change of Command.
Here is the field for the Sam F. Davis: