Kentucky Derby prep: Sam F. Davis odds and analysis

Saturday’s Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis is the first of two stops on the Tampa Bay Downs road to Kentucky Derby 2024, and 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points are available to the eligible finishers.

Recent winners of the Sam F. Davis include the $1.4 million earner Classic Causeway in 2022 who also won the Tampa Derby (G2) and the Belmont Derby (G1). In 2016 Destin also took the Tampa Derby, leading to a sixth in the Kentucky Derby and a second in the Belmont Stakes. Any Given Saturday became a millionaire after winning the Davis in 2007 and going on to win three graded stakes in a row, including the Haskell (G1).

Here is the analysis for the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. It is scheduled as race 10 on an 11-race card with post time set for 5:15 p.m. EST.

1. El Principito, 30-1. Accelerate – Michael Laurato / Gabriel Maldonado – 6: 1-0-0 - $25,025. El Principito won his first career start in a $25,000 maiden claimer, which was on the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track with 18-1 odds in a field of six. Since then, the best finish he had in five starts was a fourth in the recent Pasco Stakes at Tampa at 99-1. El Principito also ran in three other stakes and an allowance. Toss.

2. Tireless, 10-1. Not This Time – Todd Pletcher / Antonio Gallardo – 4: 1-2-0 - $76,013. Tireless began his career racing on the turf at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland with a second and fifth. He was also entered for the grass in October but that race was moved to a fast main track at Churchill where he ran second. Last month Tireless got his maiden-breaker at Tampa with a stalking trip against a field of six as a heavy favorite. Toss.

3. Patriot Spirit, 8-1. Constitution – Michael Campbell / Samy Camacho – 4: 2-0-0 - $78,500. Patriot Spirit was a debut winner at Colonial Downs in August at 2-1 going seven furlongs. He jumped right onto the Derby trail in the Iroquois (G3), where he set the pace and came up empty down the stretch. After running fourth in the Bowman Mills at Keeneland, Patriot Spirit took the blinkers off and won the six-furlong Inaugural Stakes at Tampa as the odds-on favorite. Toss.

4. Crazy Mason, 10-1. Coal Front – Gregory Sacco / Mychel Sanchez – 6: 2-2-1 - $100,150. Crazy Mason broke his maiden by almost 10 lengths at Saratoga in his second try in a maiden race restricted by auction price. He was stakes-placed twice at Delaware Park behind Copper Tax and then at Tampa in the Inaugural, where he was beaten by Patriot Spirit. Last month he won an allowance at Tampa as an odds-on favorite with first-time Lasix. Top choice.

5. No More Time, 12-1. Not This Time – Jose D’Angelo / Paco Lopez – 3: 1-1-0 - $36,780. No More Time is an Iowa-bred who sold as a yearling at Keeneland for $40,000. He broke his maiden by almost seven lengths as the favorite in his second start at Gulfstream. No More Time was fifth in the Mucho Macho Man, which had three runners finish poorly in last Saturday’s Holy Bull. Toss.

6. Agate Road, 9-2. Quality Road – Todd Pletcher / Jose Ortiz – 5: 2-2-0 - $243,500. Agate Road was second by a nose in his first start at Saratoga when he rallied from last after an awkward start in a race that was meant for the turf. He won his next two starts on the grass, a maiden at the Spa and then the Pilgrim (G2) at Aqueduct. Agate Road was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. In his first start of this year, he again ran late to get second in the Dania Beach on the grass as a heavy favorite. Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Davis seven times, including last year with Litigate. Win contender.

7. Copper Tax, 8-1. Copper Bullet – Gary Capuano / Charlie Marquez – 7: 5-1-0 - $251,500. Copper Tax won a $50,000 maiden claimer in his second race at Delaware in June. He continued to record five victories in a row, with the first four at Delaware in a pair of restricted allowances and then the Rocky Run Stakes going a mile with a front-end effort. A win in the James F. Lewis at Laurel Park led to a sixth on the Derby trail in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct. Win contender.

8. Everdoit, 20-1. Gary D – Kevin Rice / Huber Villa-Gomez – 4: 1-1-0 - $46,750. Everdoit got his maiden victory in his second start, which was at Tampa going two turns. Three weeks later he was second in an allowance after cutting back to a sprint. Last month he set the pace and faded badly to finish last in the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream. Toss.

9. Change of Command, 4-1. Into Mischief – Shug McGaughey / Tyler Gaffalione – 5: 2-1-1 - $113,300. Change of Command broke his maiden at Gulfstream in December going seven furlongs after three improving starts on the New York circuit. Last month he pressed the pace and was involved in a stretch duel, which he won by a neck as the even-money favorite with Lasix for the first-time. He owns the best dirt speed figure in the field. Blinkers go on. Use underneath.

10. West Saratoga, 8-1. Exaggerator – Larry Demeritte / Jesus Castanon – 8: 2-4-0 - $304,140. West Saratoga is the most experienced horse in the field, the leader in earnings and the only one in the race with any Derby points after earning 11 from a stalking victory in the Iroquois and a fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). In his only race of this year, he was a distant second in the Pasco at Tampa. Win contender.

11. Fulmineo, 20-1. Bolt d’Oro – Arnaud Delacour / Daniel Centeno – 5: 1-2-1 - $87,005. Fulmineo began his career with a third-place finish on the main track at Delaware in July and then moved to the turf for his next three starts. He broke his maiden at Colonial Downs, finished second in the Pilgrim behind Agate Road and then was 11th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf after running into traffic. To start this year, Fulmineo moved back to the dirt and ran second in an allowance at Tampa to Crazy Mason. Use underneath.

12. Elysian Meadows, 5-1. City of Light – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 2: 2-0-0 - $79,750. This New York-bred won both of his starts against state-breds at Aqueduct at the end of 2023. Elysian Meadows broke his maiden in November against a field of 10 sprinters at 15-1. A month later he won a first-level allowance while pressing the pace with much shorter odds of 7-2. He beat a horse who came back to win his next start. Toss.

Summary: A wide-open field of 12 was drawn for the Sam F. Davis, which includes only one horse who has won Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Two horses in the race ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and have to be considered wildcards to win. Also, a fast pace is expected.

Advantage goes to horses who have shown the ability to run from behind the pace. Crazy Mason comes off two good races at Tampa, moving from a second in the six-furlong Inaugural to a strong allowance victory going two turns. Copper Tax and West Saratoga have back class and success coming from behind.

Crazy Mason is the top choice to use in an exacta box with Copper Tax and West Saratoga.