Kentucky Derby prep: Sam F. Davis odds and analysis

Saturday’s Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis is the first of two points races at Tampa Bay Downs on the road to Kentucky Derby 2023. The 1 1/16-mile race drew a full field of 12 3-year-olds who will compete for the 20-8-6-4-2 points that go to the top five eligible finishers.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Sam F. Davis, which is scheduled as race 10 of 11 with post time set for 5:18 p.m. EST. Each horse is shown with odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff, his sire, trainer, jockey, record and purse earnings.

1. Worthington (15-1, Classic Empire, Mike Maker, Pablo Morales, 4: 2-0-2, $154,335) Worthington will take a shot on the Derby trail as he moves from turf to dirt for the first time. The son of Classic Empire broke his maiden on the grass at Keeneland in October in his second start when he bested a field of 12. A month later he won an allowance at Churchill Downs. Recently, Worthington was third in the Dania Beach at Gulfstream Park after pressing the pace in what turned out to be a mile with a very fast time. Live long shot.

2. Prairie Hawk (10-1, Curlin – Saffie Joseph Jr., Samy Camacho, 3: 2-0-0, $30,700) Prairie Hawk was the winner of his last two starts at Tampa. He broke his maiden in his second start by almost three lengths going a distance of ground as the favorite. Last month, the son of Curlin led an allowance every step of the way with Lasix for the first time and beat Groveland by a length. Use underneath.

3. Classic Legacy (6-1 – Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 3: 1-1-0 - $69,950) Classic Legacy broke his maiden in his third career start by 3 1/2 lengths at Aqueduct while pressing the pace as an odds-on favorite. He used a late rally in his second start to finish second at the Big A. Since his maiden score he trained in Florida at Payson Park. He has the look of a slow-developing colt from the connections of Pegasus World Cup winner Art Collector. Win contender.

4. Laver (20-1, Bernardini, Rusty Arnold, Jose Morales, 5: 1-2-0 - $118,030) Laver began his career racing on the grass twice and then moved to the main track at Keeneland, where he ran second going two turns then broke his maiden at Churchill after pressing the pace going a one-turn mile. Most recently, he was fifth in the Mucho Macho Man. Toss.

5. Groveland (15-1, Street Sense, Eion Harty, Daniel Cedeno, 4: 1-1-2, $27,110) Groveland is a homebred from Godolphin who has been based at Tampa. He broke his maiden there in his third start going a distance of ground. He moved up to an allowance last month when he was second the entire race and finished behind Prairie Hawk. Toss.

6. Classic Car Wash (12-1, Noble Bird, Mark Casse, Emisael Jaramillo, 3: 2-0-0, $63,550) Classic Car Wash broke his maiden in his second start at Gulfstream when he beat a field of eight by more than eight lengths going seven furlongs at odds of 8-5. Last month, the gelding won an allowance on the Tapeta track at Gulfstream with a front-end effort going two turns as the favorite with Lasix. Toss.

7. Dubyuhnell (3-1, Good Magic, Danny Gargan, Jose Ortiz, 3: 2-0-0, $196,050) Dubyuhnell is the only horse in the field with a Derby trail victory, which came when he stepped up from a maiden victory at Aqueduct to win the nine-furlong Remsen (G2) and earn the highest speed figure in this field. Both wins came after putting the blinkers on. Win contender.

8. Notah (20-1, Flatter, John Terranova, Antonio Gallardo, 2: 1-1-0, $26,500) Notah made his debut in June at Monmouth Park when he finished second at odds of 4-1. He came back for his second start last month and won a sprinting maiden at Tampa as the 1-1 favorite with a pace-pressing effort. Toss.

9. Champions Dream (6-1, Justify, Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione, 4: 2-1-0, $170,250) Champions Dream was well regarded when sent off as the favorite in his debut at Saratoga, which he won with a gate-to-wire effort by two lengths. He came right back in the Champagne (G1), where he ran a tired fifth. At Aqueduct in November, Champions Dream won the Nashua (G3) after a stalking trip. He was transferred to the barn of Mark Casse and most recently missed winning the Pasco by a neck. Top choice.

10. Dreaming of Kona (12-1, Fast Anna, Aldana Spieth, Scott Spieth, 3: 2-0-1, $113,420) Dreaming of Kona broke his maiden on the synthetic track at Presque Isle Downs by more than nine lengths and then moved to the dirt tracks of Florida in stakes races. He was third in the Inaugural at Tampa in December and then was moved up to second by disqualification in the Mucho Macho Man at 19-1. Both times Dreaming of Kona pressed the pace. Live long shot.

11. Litigate (6-1, Blame, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 2: 1-1-0, $62,590) Litigate was a debut winner at Aqueduct in November for Todd Pletcher. He stretched out to a mile in an allowance at Gulfstream last month, where he had the lead in a stalking trip and finished second behind Cycle Mischief who went on to a disappointing performance in the Holy Bull. This will be the first race around two turns for Litigate. Use underneath.

12. Zydeceaux (12-1, Cajun Breeze, Ramon Minguet, Samuel Marin, 5: 3-1-1, $153,540) Zydeceaux won his first career start at Gulfstream in a $16,000 maiden claimer. He won his last two starts with a front-running effort in a starter allowance going seven furlongs and then took the Pasco at Tampa Bay Downs at 9-1 after being hard pressed throughout that seven-furlong stake, which is considered a prep for the Davis. Zydeceaux will stretch out to two turns for the first time while breaking from the far outside. Toss.

Summary: The full field of 12 in the Sam F. Davis presents a handicapping challenge filled with the possibility of big mutuel payouts.

The three win contenders are Classic Legacy, Dubyuhnell and Champions Dream. Classic Legacy comes from the red-hot barn of Bill Mott, and this son of Into Mischief has the look of a horse who is ready to take on the Derby trail after an impressive maiden victory at Aqueduct. Dubyuhnell won the Remsen (G2) going nine furlongs, earning by far the highest speed figure in the field. Champions Dream has the look of a Mark Casse runner who got an ideal prep race in the Pasco when he missed the win by less than a length after a late rally, and he will be the top choice.

The exacta, trifecta, and superfecta could have hefty payouts if Worthington, Prairie Hawk, Dreaming of Kona or Litigate get a piece of the exotics.