Sam F. Davis Stakes 2020: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race
Given Independence Hall’s presence Saturday in Tampa Bay Downs' Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, this minor 2020 Kentucky Derby prep is expected to receive major attention.
Independence Hall created a stir back in November when he won the Nashua Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct with big speed figures on the Beyer Speed Figure and TimeformUS scale. But some of that luster came off later on when he displayed some pre-race antics, then had to work a bit harder to win the Jan. 1 Jerome Stakes.
Given Independence Hall's slow-breaking tendency and low value, it's worth searching elsewhere in this 1 1/16-mile race, which awards Derby points on a 10-4-2-1 scale to the top four finishers..
The Sam F. Davis Stakes is carded as Race 11 with post time set for 5:29 ET. Here's a closer look at the field with projected odds by Horse Racing Nation.
1. Ajaaweed, 9/2 (Curlin – Kiaran McLaughlin/Joel Rosario – 4: 1-1-0): Factoring in the slow pace and speed bias, Ajaaweed arguably ran equal to Shotski when finishing second in the Remsen Stakes (G2). He kept cutting into Shotski’s lead with a grinding late move, only losing by half a length at the end. Yet, that kind of gradual-moving style works better at longer distances, and now he cuts back to 1 1/16 miles. With a moderate pace at best lined up Saturday, this one may come too late. Use underneath.
2. Sole Volante, 12-1 (Karakontie (JPN) – Patrick Biancone/Luca Panici – 3: 2-0-1): Sole Volante took some of his turf form to the Mucho Macho Stakes on dirt at Gulfstream Park, where he ran a credible third behind Chance It and As Seen On Tv. But he also had a clear shot to pass those two runners and failed. Some synthetic or turf closers hang in the stretch on the main track because they cannot grip the surface properly. For example, think of Dullahan in the 2012 Kentucky Derby as he picked up a third-place finish. Sole Volante will find himself at a pace disadvantage as well with his closing style. With that said, it's easy to imagine him coming late for third. Use underneath.
3. Albert Park, 20-1 (Street Sense – Michael Stidham/Pablo Morales – 4: 2-1-0): This one appears in over his head. Albert Park finished second in the Pasco Stakes, a local sprint, but still lost by 5 ½ lengths after fading in the stretch. He also lost ground in the stretch of the Cecil B. DeMile (G3) over the Del Mar turf, indicating that a two-turn route is too much for him at this stage. Toss.
4. Independence Hall, 1/1 (Constitution – Michael Trombetta/Jose Ortiz – 3: 3-0-0): Considering the favorite owns a stratospheric 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure from his 12 ¼-length Nashua Stakes win, it may seem silly to go against him. But when Independence Hall returned in the Jerome Stakes in early January, he plummeted back down to a 102. Granted, he still won the Jerome by four lengths. However, it is a concern that he needed to work at all against a weaker field. His slow break in two of three races is also a concern. Win contender.
5. No Getting Over Me, 30-1 (He’s Had Enough – Gerald Bennett/Samy Camacho – 3: 1-1-1): In his most recent start, No Getting Over Me finished a distant third by seven lengths in the Pasco. He only earned a 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure, too. His previous two TimeformUS numbers were 83 and 95. It is notable he broke his maiden by 9 ¾ lengths, and his trainer is aiming high. But this field is too tough. Toss.
6. Premier Star, 7/2 (Tapiture – Jorge Navarro/John Velazquez) – 2: 2-0-0): In his career debut at Gulfstream, Premier Star defeated a talented runner in Caracaro. In fairness, Caracaro was green in the stretch run and probably needed the start. Afterwards, Premier Star backed up the race by taking an allowance optional claimer by 5 ¼ lengths on the same track. The talent is there. Both races came at seven furlongs, though, and now he stretches out to 1 1/16 miles. His dam side is filled with unsuccessful producers and runners, making this pedigree a tough read. It's best to look elsewhere for value. Win contender.
7. Tiz Rye Time, 20-1 (Tiznow – Ian Wilkes/Julien Leparoux – 3: 1-0-0): This one’s maiden win came at Gulfstream on Dec. 18, and he defeated Todd Pletcher-trained Candy Tycoon. Candy Tycoon notably came back to break his maiden on Jan. 25 by four lengths after losing four times. Tiz Rye Time went the other way, though, finishing a distant fourth by seven lengths in a slow Jan. 11 allowance race on the same course. Off that effort, he is difficult to endorse for any spot in this Derby trail prep. Toss.
8. Chapalu, 10-1 (Flatter – Arnaud Delacour/Daniel Centeno) – 3: 2-1-0): This synthetic/turf horse is loaded with talent, at least on those two surfaces. Watch the replay of his Grey Stakes (G3) victory at Woodbine. Chapalu led the field and won under only mild encouragement in the stretch run. Chapalu’s Oct. 6 Keeneland maiden win is notable, too, because he ran into significant traffic on the first turn and even took up at one point. Yet, he recovered enough to win by 3 ¾ lengths, a big margin in turf racing. The dirt question is fair. For what it is worth, he did outwork the older horse No Dozing on Feb. 3. The pick.
Conclusion: Chapalu’s ability to handle dirt is unknown. His sire line is fine for the surface, as it traces back to A.P. Indy. But his dam line is more green.
With that said, he owns the right running style, giving him the chance to secure a good upfront position before striking in the stretch at a nice price.
Independence Hall is a deserving favorite and very well may crush them again. If Chapalu’s odds are 5-1 or higher though, bettors should think about playing him to win. From the outside Post 8, he can follow Premier Star and make his move on the turn.