Sam F. Davis Stakes 2019: Odds and analysis
Ten have entered for Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, the first of two Kentucky Derby 2019 preps hosted by Tampa Bay Downs. The 1 1/16-mile test offers qualifying points on a 10-4-2-1 scale to the Top 4 finishers.
Grade 1 winner Knicks Go leads the field in his 3-year-old debut, also his first race since fading to finish off the board as the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) favorite. Trainer Todd Pletcher will try to win the Sam F. Davis for the seventh time as So Alive makes his stakes debut along with Still Dreaming, a half-brother to 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist.
The Sam F. Davis is scheduled as Race 11 of 12 on Saturday’s card, with a post time of 5:15 p.m. ET. Below is an analysis of the field with projected morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation.
1. Counter Offer, 25-1 (Tapizar – Ian Wilkes/jockey – 6:1-1-0 – $54,689): After three off-the-board finishes, Counter Offer broke his maiden at a mile over Churchill Downs’ turf on Oct. 28. He finished off the board next out, but was most recently second to So Alive on Jan. 6 over this course. Like his winning race, he settled mid-pack, but this time failed to catch the winner at a mile and 40 yards. But he also finished 7 1/2 lengths in front of the third-place horse. Counter Offer has ran a few races trailing the field, but appears to have too much work left when settled that far back. If you're backing him, hope he sits a bit closer Saturday. Pretender.
2. Going for Gold, 30-1 (Atreides – Bob Hess Jr./Jose Bracho – 2:0-2-0 – $16,800): Going for Gold was scratched from the Holy Bull (G2) last weekend and finds a slightly easier Derby prep to try here. This will be his first try past six furlongs. He ran in two maiden special weights at Laurel Park, missing by a neck Dec. 9 and by a nose 20 days later. The gelding was on the lead both times and receives blinkers in this race. He has the advantage when going for the lead from this post, but he’ll have to prove he can carry his speed a farther distance. Toss.
3. Knicks Go, 6-5 (Paynter – Ben Colebrook/Albin Jimenez – 6:2-1-1 – $672,515): Knicks Go, the only graded stakes winner in this field, certainly boasts experience. Colebrook scratched a line through his off-the-board Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) performance given the slop and fast pace last November at Churchill Downs. A race earlier, he'd run second over the same track in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and two starts back earned his first set of Derby qualifying points by upsetting the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at 70-1. Knicks Go has had two bullet works since back in training at Tampa – a half-mile in 47 flat Jan. 19 and five-eighths in 58:40 Jan. 26 – and should be able to press the pace from this post. The top choice.
4. Cave Run, 12-1 (Street Sense – Eoin Harty/Jesus Castanon – 2:1-0-1 – $19,750): This Godolphin homebred made a favorable impression on debut Dec. 15, winning a six-furlong maiden by 6 1/4 lengths from off the pace at Tampa. He stretched out an extra furlong in the Jan. 19 Pasco, was taken four wide around the turn and only had a mild rally for third. The maiden performance suggest he is better then what he showed in the Pasco, but he’ll have to improve while stretching out here. Use underneath.
5. Moonster, 30-1 (Malibu Moon – Dale Romans/Samy Camacho – 6:1-0-1 – $41,749): Moonster will need a big improvement to make noise here. He ran 10th and seventh respectively in the Breeders’ Futurity and Street Sense Stakes in the fall. After settling in the back half of the field, he tried to lead in a Nov. 24 allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs and faded to eighth over a sloppy track. Moonster was third throughout in a four-horse race last out at Gulfstream Park, beaten 13 1/4 lengths. Just last week, though, Romans-trained Everfast finished second as a longshot in the Holy Bull. Toss.
6. Kentucky Wildcat, 6-1 (Tapit – Tom Albertrani/Joe Bravo – 3:1-0-1 – $48,138): Kentucky Wildcat has faced some familiar names in this 3-year-old crop. Champagne (G1) runner-up Code of Honor was the winner of his first career start. The Godolphin homebred then hit the board second time out at 1 1/16 miles and finished ahead of Tacitus, the son of champion mare Close Hatches. Third time was the charm when Kentucky Wildcat held off Country House -- a flashy Gulfstream Park winner in the new year -- to prevail by half a length Dec. 1 at Aqueduct going a mile. So far he’s done his running from mid-pack or slightly further back and has a chance to step up here. Win contender.
7. Five Star General, 10-1 (Distorted Humor – Arnaud Delacour/Jose Ortiz – 3:2-0-0 – $78,050): Five Star General started on the dirt before entering turf races for his next two outings. Both races came off the grass, though, and the surface appeared to work for him. He broke his maiden Oct. 27 at Laurel Park going a mile and led almost every step. He ran the same distance when the Nov. 22 Central Park Stakes moved to Aqueduct’s main track and he led gate to wire. This will be a bigger test, as it's one thing to beat turf horses on the main track, and another to win on the Derby trail. He picks up a top-notch rider here. Use underneath.
8. So Alive, 4-1 (Super Saver – Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano – 3:2-0-0 – $52,569): So Alive was an impressive debut winner at Keeneland’s October meet, rushing from far back to win by a neck at six furlongs over a muddy track. He disappointed as the favorite in a Churchill Downs allowance optional claiming event over a sloppy surface, but was back on track at Tampa when the going was fast. The half-brother of 2018 Derby runner Vino Rosso dueled on the lead going one mile and forty yards and held off a late running Counter Offer. His two wins show a versatile running style, which could benefit him with multiple speed horses in the race. Pletcher has called one of his top riders for the mount. Win contender.
9. Well Defined, 30-1 (With Distinction – Kathleen O’Connell/Pablo Morales – 6:2-1-1 – $320,570): Well Defined is another one with experience, but his last two races have resulted in off-the-board finishes. He was a competitive 2-year-old in the Florida Sire stakes program, in which he won the In Reality and was second in the Affirmed. He traveled to Churchill Downs for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but finished 12th, then finished fifth in his 3-year-old debut in the Jan. 5 Mucho Macho Man back at Gulfstream. Well Defined likes to be close to the pace if not on the lead. He’ll likely shoot for the front from this post with blinkers on. Pretender.
10. Still Dreaming, 8-1 (Flatter – Graham Motion/Jorge Vargas Jr. – 2:1-0-0 – $25,200): Still Dreaming has a lot to live up to as a member of Nyquist's family. He’s been at Tampa the past month with plenty of time to settle in. The colt improved second time out when he stretched out to a mile at Laurel Park, settled about a length off the pace, and pulled away by three lengths. Still Dreaming worked a sharp six furlongs Feb. 1 in 1:13.40. Live longshot.
Summary: Knicks Go is the one to beat, and he looks sharp from recent works over Tampa Bay Downs' track. As a colt that likes to be on or near the front, he’ll have to avoid a speed duel, as there are a few in here that like to lead. So Alive also has the advantage of a win over this track, and it’s a prep Pletcher has won six times already. Kentucky Wildcat and Still Dreaming are intriguing maiden winners that have showed potential so far, and with Knicks Go in here you should get them for a decent price if you like them.