Fair odds: Full field in Sam F. Davis means value opportunity

A dozen horses exiting nine races at three tracks passed the entry box for the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs, and the field is as evenly matched as that mix of variables would suggest.

The morning line favorite is no. 9 Change of Command, a winner of two straight since shipping to Florida for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey after losing his first three starts on the New York Racing Association circuit. Something about the Sunshine State air agreed with the $1,050,000 million yearling, as he broke his maiden at 2-5 before winning his two-turn debut at 11-10. He had not been favored in either of his three previous starts.

Also interestingly, McGaughey adds blinkers off the consecutive wins. The Into Mischief colt with Tyler Gaffalione aboard will be tough, but he is a very likely underlay based on my fair odds.

No. 7 Copper Tax was well traveled as a 2-year-old, racing seven times at three tracks with a five-race win streak snapped in the Remsen (G2). By Copper Bullet out of a Majestic Warrior mare, Cooper Tax might not want 1 1/8 miles, so 1 1/16 miles for his 3-year-old debut and as a prep for another 1 1/16-mile race makes a lot of sense. Talent-wise, he has shown more than enough ability to run with these.

No. 6 Agate Road debuted in an off-the-turf race at Saratoga then stuck to turf in four more tries, including a decent fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and a second at 1-2 in the Dania Beach in his 3-year-old debut, so the return to dirt with purpose is a curious move for trainer Todd Pletcher. The connections, which include co-owner Repole Stable and jockey Jose Ortiz, are sure to attract money, but he is a player.

To me, that all adds up to Change of Command and Agate Road as dangerous underlays. The play at the morning-line price is Copper Tax.