Sam F. Davis 2026: Odds, analysis for Ky. Derby prep
Saturday’s $250,000 Sam F. Davis is the first of two stops on the Tampa Bay Downs road to Kentucky Derby 2026 with 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points available to the top five finishers.
In the Sam F. Davis field of nine there are two horses that have made appearances on the Kentucky Derby trail and only one of them earned any points. One of the 3-year-olds is a stakes-winner and another is stakes-placed. There are also three who are still looking for their maiden victory.
Here is the analysis for the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis with morning-line odds from Brian Zipse of the Horse Racing Nation staff. It is scheduled as the last on an 11-race card, with post time set for 5:30 p.m. EST.
1. Confessional, 7-2. Essential Quality – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 2: 1-1-0 - $78,485. Confessional was a debut winner in October at Keeneland by three lengths against a field of 10. He came back to get to the lead in an allowance at Gulfstream Park only to get passed by the recent Holy Bull (G3) winner Nearly. On that day he was the odds-on favorite in a four-horse field where the finishers were spread out down the stretch. Cox won the Sam F. Davis last year with John Hancock. Win contender.
2. Epic Desire, 8-1. Uncle Mo – Todd Pletcher / Samy Camacho – 5: 1-1-1 - $56,525. Epic Desire broke his maiden last month at Tampa going two turns when he got Lasix for the first time. He stalked the early pace and drew off down the stretch to win by more than two lengths in a six-horse field. Before going to Florida for the winter, he was entered three times for the turf and finished fourth and third on the grass. He had an April debut at Keeneland, where he was sent off at 3-1. Pletcher won the Davis seven times from 2006 to 2023. Live long shot.
3. The Puma, 5-1. Essential Quality – Gustavo Delgado / Javier Castellano – 1: M-1-0 - $14,280. The Puma is still a maiden with one start, which happened last month at Gulfstream. He got to the lead early after a slow start in the seven-furlong maiden special weight as the 2-1 favorite and was passed by the promising Bill Mott runner Chief Wallabee. He had one workout at Gulfstream since his only start. Use underneath.
4. Game for It, 15-1. Known Agenda – Chad Summers / Luis Rivera Jr. – 1: 1-0-0 - $38,500. Game for It shows up in the Sam F. Davis after considering Derby trail races that were scheduled for last weekend. He is entered at Tampa after winning his only start in a $75,000 optional maiden claimer in December, where he was sent off as a heavy favorite in a seven-horse field at Aqueduct. He stumbled at the break and got up late to win by a half-length. Live long shot.
5. Ocelli, 12-1. Connect – D. Whit Beckman / Joseph Ramos - 3: M-1-2 - $29,600. Ocelli is still a maiden after three starts in which he hit the board each time. His first start was at Churchill Downs in November, followed by two at Fair Grounds, which is his winter base. Both races in New Orleans were around two turns against full fields where he rallied from the back of the fields. Use underneath.
6. Renegade, 9-5. Into Mischief – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 3: M-2-1 - $79,000. Renegade is still considered a maiden although he crossed the finish line first in his second start, which was at Aqueduct in October. On that day, he was disqualified and placed second for bumping in the stretch. He moved on to the Derby trail in New York, where he picked up four points for his second-place finish in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct in December. He has been training for the winter at Palm Beach Downs, which is Pletcher’s Florida training base. Top pick.
7. Wayne’s Law, 10-1. Tiz the Law – Amador Sanchez / Marcos Meneses – 4: 2-0-2 - $85,530. Wayne’s Law is the only stakes winner in this field with a victory in the Aventura at Gulfstream by more than seven lengths going a one-turn mile in September. The Florida-bred broke his maiden in his second try against state-breds by almost seven lengths. Last seen, Wayne’s Law was third in the Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs. Win contender.
8. Max Capacity, 20-1. Maxfield – Richard Sillaman / Jevian Toledo – 7: 2-1-0 - $94,500. Max Capacity was a first-time winner by four lengths in July with a front-end effort at Colonial Downs against a field of nine. He ran in four stakes as a 2-year-old, including a second in the Inaugural at Tampa in December. Among the stakes, Max Capacity won an allowance at Laurel Park in October. His only race this year was fourth in the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream. Even with seven starts, the Sam F. Davis will be his first around two turns. Toss.
9. Dr. Kapur, 6-1. McKinzie – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Sammy Marin – 3: 1-1-0 - $89,643. Dr. Kapur broke his maiden while racing on the lead in his second try, which was at Keeneland in October as the heavy favorite. In that race he bested Chip Honcho, who went on to win the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds on the Kentucky Derby trail. Dr. Kapur tried the Derby trail in November and finished sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) after setting the pace against one of the stronger fields in the early prep races. Win contender.
Summary: The pace projector for the Sam F. Davis shows a neutral pace with Dr. Kapur likely to be out front. He is one of two horses in the field with experience on the Kentucky Derby trail when he set the pace and faded badly in the Kentucky Jockey Club in November. Renegade is the other 3-year-old with experience and the only one who has earned Derby points. The Todd Pletcher runner is still a maiden, although he crossed the finish line first in Aqueduct in October ahead of a Derby trail winner but was disqualified and placed second. Last seen Renegade was second in the Remsen with a strong late rally going nine furlongs. Renegade is the top pick in the Sam F. Davis.