Salvator Mile fair odds: Value looms on classy favorite

One of the vagaries of pari-mutuel wagering is that bettors often overvalue wins and overly devalue losses.

I am hoping that is the case in the Salvator Mile (G3) on Saturday at Monmouth Park where Bishops Bay returns after losing the Westchester (G3) at odds-on last out. Antiquarian won the Westchester and went on to be a respectable fourth behind three absolute monsters in the Met Mile. That class holds up very well here against the likes of Grande and Grand Mo the First.

Bishops Bay is 8-5 on the morning line, which would be tremendous value against my fair odds of even money. In terms of implied probability, fair odds of even money mean I think he wins this race half the time. Even if he ends up odds-on in the win pool, there is opportunity to lean on Bishops Bay as a stone cold single in all multi-race wagers.

Vertically, I don't get the short odds on Grand Mo the First. Sure, he won last out, but this appears to be a real class test and potentially a prep for a return to turf. Class relief should help Grande, though, and if he drifts from his price off that lackluster Alysheba showing the chalk exacta might actually be playable. Probably not, but it is worth watching.

Price-wise, Point Dume is a little dangerous stretching out to two turns given his pace edge. If Angel Cruz can get him to relax behind the likes of East Avenue, another known name likely to get overbet, then Point Dume has a shot to hang on for a piece.