Runhappy offspring are a strong play on synthetic surfaces
After Smile Happy's win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, we looked at how Runhappy progeny cashed in at longer distances. While we continued to follow that trend, we noticed that Runhappy is passing on another aptitude to his offspring: strong performance on synthetic surfaces.
Updating the trend we saw in November, Runhappys are showing a strong affinity for dirt routes. They are winning 19 percent at all routes with a positive HRN Impact of +14 percent.
The HRN Impact looks at the odds of all his starters to determine the runner's expected wins according to the odds and takeout. (You can think of HRN Impact like ROI, but it is a more accurate statistic because it is based on all starters, not only the winners.)
Dirt routes preferred – and that's the Derby trail
Looking specifically at dirt routes, we see the affinity more pronounced. While Runhappy progeny win 15 percent sprinting on the dirt, this number jumps to 21 percent routing, a 40 percent increase in wins. And this is also reflected in the HRN impact number, which jumps from -14 percent to +14 percent.
This trend bodes well for Runhappy's hopefuls on the Kentucky Derby trail, including Smile Happy, who runs Saturday at Fair Grounds in the Risen Star (G2), and recent Gulfstream Park maiden winner Happy Boy Rocket.
Strong synthetic numbers for bettors to note
Looking at synthetic tracks, which at the moment are only Gulfstream, Turfway and Golden Gate, the Runhappys perform extremely well. They are winning at 22 percent on synthetic sprints and 33 percent of synthetic routes, although at a small sample. Combined, Runhappy offspring have taken a lofty 25 percent of all synthetic starts.
The sizable HRN Impact numbers also help tell the story and show that the improved performances have taken bettors by surprise, at least for now. The HRN Impact numbers of 52 percent for synthetic sprints and 82 percent for synthetic routes show that Runhappys are a very good bet on this surface, outperforming their odds by 61 percent altogether.
We will see whether these trends continue for success on dirt routes and synthetic surfaces, although the spotlight certainly will be on Smile Happy and any other potential Derby contenders this spring.