Fair odds: DeRosa admits a mistake for a Ky. Derby prep play

Figuring out how to bet the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks comes down to how everybody else bets the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby prep on Saturday at Turfway Park.

Poster, winner of the Remsen Stakes (G2) and third in the Sam F. Davis, is the morning-line favorite in an oversubscribed field of 13. I normally do not like Remsen horses, and that bias clouded my initial judgment of Poster's fast-closing yet non-threatening third in the Davis as just another dressed-up plodder, the type who normally wins nine-furlong races for 2-year-olds. But the second-place finisher out of that race, Owen Almighty, came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), and winner John Hancock is the morning-line favorite for the Louisiana Derby (G2) on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

But more important than Poster fitting on class, he fits on speed and performance by virtue of getting an 8 on the Ragozin Sheets with proper spacing to take another step forward here. Sire Munnings is 16 percent with his synthetic progeny, and dam Pin Up is a full sister to a pair of synthetic winners out of the Quiet American mare Cara Rafaela, herself the dam of champion Bernardini.

Poster will again be doing most of his running late with the benefit of Innovator likely cutting fractions on the front end. Jockey Nik Juarez and trainer D. Wayne Lukas just teamed to win the Virginia Derby with American Promise, and Innovator is likely to employ similarly aggressive tactics early. 

California Burrito is the other horse expected to take significant money here. Although the morning line suggests they will be close in price, I do prefer Poster enough that I'd be willing to single him against a colt who won the prep for this gate to wire. But that seems like an impossible trip going nine furlongs against this group.

Baby Max could be worth a bet with trainer Kelsey Danner adding blinkers after chasing California Burrito last out. I like the thought of those helping keep this horse a little closer with the added distance since his closing kick has been so strong.

I have no idea what trainer Todd Pletcher's intentions are with maiden Candytown should that one draw in, but I'd absolutely include that one as an exotics key at a huge number if he's in the gate.