Fair odds: Best weekend bet is a filly in turf debut at Woodbine
The Grade 3 Royal North Stakes on Saturday at Woodbine attracted what appears to be a fairly competitive field on paper, but my wager involves thinking that favorite Earhart is above and beyond her competition.
The LNJ Foxwoods homebred filly by Siyouni shipped to Canada late last year and won both starts as a 3-year-old by a combined 17 3/4 lengths. A stakes try at Turfway Park did not go according to plan, and connections reset with a return to sprinting in the Whimsical Stakes last out, bagging that Grade 3 at odds of 3-10.
Now trainer Josie Carroll opts to stay local but try turf in the Royal North going 6 1/2 furlongs against nine others. Given her sire and dam both are stakes winners over turf, there is little concern about handling that surface. Still, the last time she tried something new she got beat at 7-10, so she's not invincible. Brass tacks, though, if she runs back to the Whimsical she wins this. If she improves off this, then she is a likely Grade 1 winner down the road. Even money is a fair price to bet on the latter.
Gal In a Rush tried Earhart last time and managed a runner-up finish to that one while really being no match for the win. Turf and a larger field could help her closing kick. She is the first stakes starter for Miguel Clement, who took over his late father's stable just this week. If Earhart does not offer any value, then Gal In a Rush likely will.
Toupie is the one to fade here if the morning line holds up. Trainer Graham Motion is just 1-for-21 in stakes the last three years at Woodbine, and her numbers just fit with the rest. So there is no reason for her to be a clear second choice against these.
I will bet Earhart to win at more than even money. If she is odds on, then I will look at Gal in a Rush as a possible win play and definitely hook those two up in the exotics.
Coverage of Woodbine racing at Horse Racing Nation is made possible in part through a sponsorship by Woodbine Entertainment Group.
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