Roxelana fair odds: See value opportunity on opening night

Both Happy Am I and Speedy Traveler are on three-race win streaks and neither filly has ever not been on the lead at any point of those three victories, so something has to give when they face each other in the $200,000 Roxelana Stakes on opening night Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Both Brisnet and TimeformUS give the slight front-end edge to Speedy Traveler, who is undefeated in three starts. Being outside of Happy Am I figures to benefit Speedy Traveler, as her mid-race pace ratings are faster than her adversary's. Jockey Jaime Torres could choose to outsprint that one and go on with it or track to her outside and make a bolder move on the far turn. In either scenario, I think she'll be tough to collar late.

Dazzling Blue has been unable to stay in touch with graded-stakes speed, so class relief here should have her more in the mix early. I can't imagine she'll want to engage the likely front runners, but her class should have her sitting comfortably behind the leaders with a chance at first run on the closers.

I'm going to mostly take my chances with the undefeated Speedy Traveler and looking to bet her to win based on the disparity between my fair odds and the morning line. It's also worth seeing how the track plays throughout the night. If speed is holding then her chances are upgraded for sure.

Fair odds assessments of Churchill Downs stakes races at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a partnership with the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund.