Churchill Downs fair odds: Roxelana looks like 2-horse race

One week before Kentucky Derby 2025, stakes action begins opening night at Churchill Downs and does not return until Wednesday, so savor this added-money event.

Not to tip my hand toward the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Kentucky Derby next Saturday, but I expect a chalky flavor to those proceedings. Starting off the week expecting a logical result is fitting.

Sandy Bottom and Harbor Springs are the two horses to beat in the Roxelana, a six-furlong, $200,000 dirt sprint for older fillies and mares.

Sandy Bottom is the 5-2 morning-line favorite from the barn of Michael McCarthy, whose name we will hear a lot next week as trainer of Derby favorite Journalism. More important for this affair, Sandy Bottom is the speed of the race with an ideal inside draw.

Harbor Springs is the 3-1 morning-line second choice While her most-typical closing style might be up against it normally, there are some clues that she might take it to Sandy Bottom early. For one, she pressed the pace in her 4-year-old-debut and then worked a bullet in her final prep for this. I love when closers work bullets. For two, Irad Ortiz Jr. is not going to give a passive ride.

I am prepared to bet Harbor Springs to win as the longer price between her and Sandy Bottom. Additionally, if Lady Moscato drifts in price, she'd be the long shot who would allow me to use both Sandy Bottom and Harbor Springs to try to connect an exotic with a price in there.

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