Robert B. Lewis Stakes 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race
As top California 3-year-olds Game Winner and Improbable await their season debuts, 2019 Kentucky Derby qualifying points go up for grabs for the rest of the circuit’s sophomores in Saturday’s Grade 3, $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
The 1 1/16-mile Santa Anita Park prep will pay out points on a 10-4-2-1 basis to the Top 4 finishers, with the Lewis featuring a showdown between previous Grade 3 winners Mucho Gusto and Gunmetal Gray. Note the forecast, as rain is expected.
With the Lewis carded as Race 6 of 10, and with an approximate post time of 5:30 p.m. ET, here’s a look at the field with prospective morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation:
1. Kid Cantina, 20-1 (Richard’s Kid — Librado Barocio — 4: 1-2-0): The Oct. 26 Golden Gate Fields maiden winner saw a sharp increase in his speed figures when second in a Dec. 29 starter allowance event at Santa Anita. That looks like the byproduct of finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind a big effort from the winner. Can’t fault them for trying, but this looks like a one-paced runner not fast enough to hit the board Saturday. Toss.
2. Magnificent McCool, 10-1 (Giant’s Causeway — Doug O’Neill — 6: 1-2-1): The Phoenix Thoroughbreds charge lost his first five starts on the main track, then switched to the turf for an easy win on Dec. 28 at Santa Anita. From there, connections appeared headed to the El Camino Real Derby on synthetic. With a short field for the Lewis, why not take a shot? If anything, this race might be a tad short for him. Use underneath.
3. Easy Shot, 15-1 (Trappe Shot — Keith Desormeaux — 5: 1-1-0): Desormeaux’s words before the Jan. 5 Sham Stakes (G3): “We’re kind of taking a shot with Easy Shot, pun intended.” He ran fifth, for some perspective, one length behind Coliseum, who didn’t do much running at all. Desormeaux is known for winning a prep this time of year — did it last year with My Boy Jack — but that was a different class of runner than this maiden claiming winner. Toss.
4. Gunmetal Gray, 8-5 (Exchange Rate — Jerry Hollendorfer — 5: 2-1-0): Fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, then a deep closing winner of the Sham to open his 3-year-old season, this colt will vie for favoritism. He benefited from some decent fractions in the Sham by a decidedly one-turn horse but also was one of few runners to make up ground late on the track that day. With more talented speed in the field this time, hope he sits closer if you’re betting him. Win contender.
5. Mucho Gusto, 7-5 (Mucho Macho man — Bob Baffert — 3: 2-1-0): The colt suffered his first defeat to cap his 2-year-old campaign, but there’s no shame in losing to one of the big horses, stablemate Improbable, in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). The chart labeled Mucho Gusto “clearly second best,” and that might prove enough to beat this field. Baffert noted that the colt breezed well over an off track before commanding $625,000 at auction. Win contender.
6. Nolo Contesto, 4-1 (Pioneerof the Nile — John Sadler — 2: 1-0-0): The Sadler-Hronis Racing team have done just about everything else. Why not hit the Derby trail? Dismiss this colt’s first effort, as jockey Joel Rosario lost an iron in a one-turn race. He returned Jan. 4 to beat well-regarded Omaha Beach when stretching to a mile. That day, it was another eighth lengths to third place. His running style looks similar to many others in that he’ll have to catch Mucho Gusto. Value win contender.
Summary: These West Coast preps with short, top-heavy fields are always difficult to play, but it feels here like getting on Nolo Contesto could result in a nice payout should he hit the board. Perhaps bettors will overlook him because of the troubled first start, but know connections think highly of him.