Robert B. Lewis Stakes 2020: Odds and analysis

A pair of stakes winners from the Bob Baffert barn, Thousand Words and High Velocity, will take their next stops on the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail in Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita Park.

Derby qualifying points for the Robert Lewis, a 1 1/16-mile event, will be paid out on a 10-4-2-1 scale to the Top 4 finishers. Ahead of post time, at approximately 6 p.m. ET, here's a look at the field with morning line odds projected by Horse Racing Nation:

1. Encoder, 3-1 [English Channel -John Sadler/Mike Smith - 6:3-0-0 - $162,271]: He will be making his debut on dirt after winning three times in six tries on the grass as a 2-year-old. A two-time stakes winner, he enters the Robert Lewis off a win in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita at the end of December. He has learned to rate off the pace in his turf routes and is only being asked for a half furlong more than he's raced previously. The question is whether he'll take to the dirt. Play against. 2. Thousand Words, 9-5 [Pioneerof the Nile - Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat - 2:2-0-0 - $151,000]: The class of the field is Bob Baffert's Grade 2 winning Pioneerof the Nile colt who was a $1 million yearling purchase. Thousand Words won the Los Alamitos Futurity to finish his 2-year-old campaign 2-for-2. Look for this one to be forwardly-placed and be squarely the one to beat. Baffert has won four of the last seven editions of this race as well as in 2009 with Thousand Words' sire. Win contender. 3. Tizamagician, 8-1 [Tiznow - Richard Mandella/Victor Espinoza - 6:1-4-0 - $75,951]: It took him six tries to shirk his maiden, but he finally broke through on New Year's Day--snapping three consecutive second-place finishes. By Tiznow out of a graded stakes-placed Dixie Union mare, he's only being asked to go a half furlong longer than his last four races. Although not as classy as Thousand Words, he could be a handful if the two tangle down the stretch. Top choice. 4. Royal Act, 8-1 [American Pharoah - Peter Eurton/Abel Cedillo - 2:1-0-0- $32,844]: A $500,000 purchase as a yearling, this American Pharoah colt broke his maiden at first asking at Del Mar last November then followed that effort up finishing fifth in the Eddie Logan Stakes. Both of his previous starts were on the turf. His dam was a precocious sort who won on the dirt but was distance-limited. This one could be in contention for a minor award. Use underneath. 5. High Velocity, 5-2 [Quality Road - Bob Baffert/Joel Rosario - 3:2-0-1 - $115,000]: He won two of his three starts as a freshman and won the Grade 3 Bob Hope at Del Mar as an even-money favorite. He is expected to be the pacesetter here and will have the proverbial target on his back. Vulnerable. 6. Zimba Warrior, 15-1 [Khozan -Kent Desormeaux/Jose Valdivia Jr. - 6:1-0-4 - $55,911]: This Khozan colt broke his maiden at the Fresno Fair and has slowly progressed from 5 1/2 furlong sprints to running a mile last out when he finished third in the Sham. He's one that will be out-classed but maybe not out-run by much. Consider him a wildcard. Live Longshot.
Analysis: With the addition of High Velocity, the early pace figures to be contentious. While Thousand Words looks tough on paper, another one or two main contenders are eligible to take their next steps, too, so don't settle on the short price.

Encoder registered higher speed figures at 2, albeit in the grass, while Tizamagician figures to carry value given how long it took him to graduate. For me, he's the one to key in the first and second positions in vertical wagers. Use Royal Act underneath in those exotics.